House News & Analysis

Rating Change: Hurd Retirement Moves Texas District to Democratic Category

by Leah Askarinam August 2, 2019 · 1:17 AM EDT

Will Hurd of Texas has been considered one of Republicans’ strongest incumbents. He proved that point in 2018, when he was one of just three Republicans to win re-election in a district that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.

But Hurd, who founded a cybersecurity firm before running for Congress, announced…

How Much Do Recent Retirements Change House Battleground?

July 25, 2019 · 9:57 PM EDT

Republicans Reps. Pete Olson of Texas and Paul Mitchell of Michigan recently announced they will not seek re-election, but how much does their decision impact the fight for the House majority? Open seats are usually more vulnerable than districts where an incumbent is seeking another term, but these two retirements…

Trump Admits He was a Liability in 2018

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 24, 2019 · 8:55 AM EDT

President Donald Trump still won’t publicly admit he was a significant factor in Republicans’ loss of the House in 2018. But a behind-the-scenes moment captured in a new book suggests he is more politically self-aware than he leads on.

We know that Trump doesn’t admit mistakes or commit sins. It’s…

Candidate Conversation - Ritchie Torres (D)

by Leah Askarinam July 19, 2019 · 2:28 PM EDT

Ritchie Torres (D)

New York’s 15th District — Rating: Solid Democratic 

Interview Date: June 25, 2019

Date of Birth: March 12, 1988; New York, N.Y.

Education: NYU (attended 2006-2007)

Elected Office: New York City Council (elected 2013, re-elected 2017)

Current Outlook: Democratic Rep. José E. Serrano will not seek re-election…

Fallout from Amash’s Decision in Michigan and Beyond

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 10, 2019 · 11:45 AM EDT

Republicans didn’t shed a tear after Rep. Justin Amash jumped the GOP ship. But their exuberance for being rid of the Michigan congressman might be masking his impact on the party’s effort to recapture the House majority and regain control of his 3rd District.  

As more of a libertarian than…

If at First You Don’t Succeed, Try, Try and Run Somewhere Else

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 2, 2019 · 1:40 PM EDT

A handful of House candidates this cycle aren’t letting previous losses — or geography — get in the way of another congressional run. Dozens of members of Congress lost races before eventually winning, but some politicians are aiming their aspirations at different districts, and in some cases different states, to…

2020 Senate (June 28, 2019): Kentucky - New Mexico

June 28, 2019 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kentucky. Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%) and 2014 (56%). Jan. 28 filing deadline. May 19 primary. Veteran Amy McGrath is likely to challenge the majority leader. She was one of Democrats’ highest-profile House challengers in 2018, but lost to GOP Rep.…

Candidate Conversation - Peggy Huang (R)

June 28, 2019 · 2:26 PM EDT

Peggy Huang (R)

California’s 45th District — Rating: Likely Democratic 

Interview Date: June 12, 2019 

Date of Birth: Oct. 6, 1970; Taipei, Taiwan

Education: Univ. of Calif. Berkeley (1993); Univ. of the Pacific (J.D. 1997)

Elected Office: Yorba Linda City Council (elected 2014)

Current Outlook: Republicans are lining up to…

SCOTUS Redistricting Decision and the Fight for the House

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 28, 2019 · 2:24 PM EDT

After much anticipation, the U.S. Supreme Court weighed in on partisan redistricting with a 5-4 ruling that it won’t weigh in on partisan redistricting now or in the future. And it’s likely that the current congressional maps will be the same for the 2020 elections. 

“The court holds that partisan…

Campaign Ad Spending 2020: What’s Your Number?

by Steve Passwaiter June 26, 2019 · 11:00 AM EDT

Most people in politics are intensely focused on President Donald Trump’s polling numbers in battleground states or the latest horse race numbers in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination. For those of us in the CMAG group at Kantar, it’s that time of the election cycle when everyone is…