President News & Analysis

Don’t Forget Arizona and Minnesota in Presidential Contest

by Stuart Rothenberg December 6, 2019 · 2:28 PM EST

Arizona has voted Democratic in only one of the last 17 presidential elections going back to 1952. That was in 1996, when President Bill Clinton won re-election in a three-way race. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been a Democratic bedrock, with Democratic presidential nominees carrying the state in each…

Mostly Smoke, and Little Fire, From Republicans to Democrats on Impeachment

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 11, 2019 · 9:13 AM EDT

Republicans are publicly celebrating impeachment as a political boon and trying to hold House Democrats’ feet to the fire with television ads and protests. But without credible challengers, it’s little more than expensive hot air.

Last week, President Donald Trump’s campaign manager bragged about turning up the heat on a…

Luke Skywalker and the Politics of Impeachment

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 26, 2019 · 8:44 AM EDT

As House Democrats move closer to impeaching President Donald Trump, I’m amazed by the collective certainty about how the storyline will play out. It’s assumed that history will repeat itself. But I can’t help but think of Luke Skywalker’s words of caution.

Up to this point, everyone is assuming that…

Trump Vulnerability in a Primary is More Fiction than Fact

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 4, 2019 · 9:05 AM EDT

Former South Carolina Rep. Mark Sanford is seriously considering challenging President Donald Trump in the primary, even though he called the idea “preposterous” on many levels. It’s a rare moment when you should take a politician at his word.

Even if you look past the huge hurdles of the president’s…

Trump Missing an Opportunity on Guns

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 26, 2019 · 8:55 AM EDT

President Donald Trump has forgotten who holds the power within the Republican Party.

There’s a perception that the National Rifle Association has an impenetrable lock on base Republican voters and thus is holding GOP members of Congress captive. But Trump is the one person who has the capital with the…

How Third-Party Votes Sunk Clinton, What They Mean for Trump

by Stuart Rothenberg August 15, 2019 · 9:08 AM EDT

For all the talk about why Donald Trump was elected president while losing the popular vote and how he could win again, one of the least discussed results of the 2016 election offers valuable lessons for Democrats.

An astounding 7.8 million voters cast their presidential ballots for someone other than…

When Trump Attacks, the Base Turns Out — For Both Parties

by Stuart Rothenberg July 25, 2019 · 9:09 AM EDT

President Donald Trump’s attacks on the four Democratic congresswomen, known collectively as “the squad,” appear to be a strange way to try to win reelection.

There is no doubt that Trump needs to motivate his base to win a second term, and his tweets and comments about immigrants and “socialism”…

What We Can Learn from the 2004 Presidential Race

by Stuart Rothenberg July 12, 2019 · 1:59 PM EDT

Beware of reading too much into presidential polls. Take, for example, the 2004 race.

An August 2003 CNN/USA Today/Gallup national survey found Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic nominee for vice president, leading the party’s presidential field with 23 percent. He was trailed by former House Majority (and Minority)…

Campaign Ad Spending 2020: What’s Your Number?

by Steve Passwaiter June 26, 2019 · 11:00 AM EDT

Most people in politics are intensely focused on President Donald Trump’s polling numbers in battleground states or the latest horse race numbers in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination. For those of us in the CMAG group at Kantar, it’s that time of the election cycle when everyone is…

Rothenberg: The 2020 Presidential Race is Still Tilting Democratic

by Stuart Rothenberg June 21, 2019 · 8:06 AM EDT

There has been plenty of attention recently on economic models that show President Donald Trump holding a huge advantage in the 2020 presidential contest. But it’s not that simple. 

Like alchemists hunting for the secret recipe that transmutes lead into gold, media personalities, political junkies and veteran analysts seem bewitched…