President News & Analysis

Amidst Breaking News, Expect the Status Quo to Prevail

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 19, 2019 · 2:29 PM EDT

The Mueller Report is out, the media coverage is saturating, but I’m skeptical that it will fundamentally change the political dynamic. President Donald Trump is a polarizing figure, most voters chose a side before the latest news, and that makes it difficult for any individual event to be a “game-changer.”

How to Survive and Thrive in Iowa — Words of Wisdom from Former Staffers

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 18, 2019 · 11:20 AM EDT

With less than 10 months to go before the Iowa caucuses, hundreds of Democrats have descended on the Hawkeye State to organize and energize voters. Only one candidate will finish first on Feb. 3 — and ultimately, there will be only one presidential nominee — but the experience can be…

How Gephardt’s 2004 Iowa Team Boosted the Democratic Party

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 17, 2019 · 8:50 AM EDT

Nearly 15 years ago, Bill Burton was driving Dick Gephardt around Iowa in an electric blue Saturn Vue named “Sue” with David Plouffe and John Lapp along for the ride.

The Missouri congressman’s 2004 presidential hopes eventually ended with a fourth-place finish in the state’s Democratic caucuses, but Gephardt’s Iowa…

Age, Change and the Democrats’ Challenge

by Stuart Rothenberg April 9, 2019 · 4:14 PM EDT

Is the Democratic race for president — and possibly even the 2020 general election — going to boil down to a choice of aged front-runners (or incumbent) versus a younger challenger who represents generational change? It’s certainly possible.

President Donald Trump, the oldest person ever to assume the presidency when…

When It Comes to Younger Voters, Watch the Margin of Victory

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 29, 2019 · 8:49 AM EDT

There’s really no question Democrats are going to win younger voters in 2020. But what matters for them is the size of their margin of victory. 

Republicans haven’t carried 18-to-29-year-olds in an election cycle since 1994, when exit polling showed them besting Democrats in this age group, 51 percent to…

Democrats Try to Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

by Stuart Rothenberg March 27, 2019 · 1:47 PM EDT

Democrats are off to a fast start in their efforts to blow the 2020 presidential election.

Sure, Donald Trump’s job approval ratings from reputable polling firms still sit in the low- to mid-40s, and congressional investigations are likely to keep the president, his family and his administration on the defensive.

How Democrats Could Lose the Popular Vote

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 22, 2019 · 2:29 PM EDT

After winning the most votes in six of the last seven presidential elections and buoyed by demographic changes, Democrats are eager to rid the country of the Electoral College and elect a president with a national popular vote. 

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is the latest Democrat to call for abolishing…

Can a Senator be Nominated and Win the White House?

by Stuart Rothenberg March 13, 2019 · 2:28 PM EDT

The abundance of sitting senators running for president seems to confirm the old joke that a senator looking into a mirror sees a future president. But it doesn’t say much about whether the Senate is a good springboard to the White House. Historically, it has not been.

Sitting senators have…

An Early Look at the 2020 Presidential Race

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 8, 2019 · 2:29 PM EST

When handicapping an election, it’s helpful to know where the race is happening and who the nominees are. And that’s problematic when trying to project the 2020 race for president that will happen 20 months from now. 

Based on the last few election cycles, the initial presidential battleground consists of…

Democrats are Right to be Wary of Howard Schultz

by Stuart Rothenberg February 20, 2019 · 9:05 AM EST

The frenzy over businessman Howard Schultz’s announcement that he is considering an independent run for president is understandable.

Democrats think President Donald Trump is headed for defeat in a one-on-one general election contest, and anything that changes that trajectory improves his re-election prospects.

Unfortunately, few of the people who panicked…