Inside Elections

By Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Erin Covey

At risk of being overshadowed by the presidential race and a tight fight for the Senate majority, the House will not be denied a part of the 2024 spotlight. 

Democrats need a net gain of just five seats out of 435 to retake the House, so the majority has been in play since the beginning of the cycle. But Republicans’ impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden will put the House at center stage, at least for a few weeks. 

The political fallout from the inquiry is hard to predict without knowing what — if anything —  could be uncovered, and if Republicans can demonstrate simultaneous care for economic and security issues while exacting revenge against Biden.  

But the fight for the House has many other factors colliding. Democrats believe Biden’s mediocre job approval rating will improve after paid TV ads explain his economic accomplishments. And they believe presidential turnout will boost their candidates, particularly in New York and California, where the party felt a drag in the 2022 midterm elections. 

Republicans are excited to be rid of their own political anchors from last cycle, including Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, and are confident in their incumbents who have prevailed previously in tough races. 

There’s some uncertainty with redistricting, but the net result of new maps alone could be minimal. And there’s the obvious unknown of a presidential candidate potentially on trial during the heat of the…