House News & Analysis

Ratings Update: Texas Primaries Narrow Democratic Fields

March 7, 2018 · 1:33 AM EST

After months of speculation, the 2018 midterm elections are officially underway with initial primaries in Texas. 

There's more evidence of a Democratic surge previously seen in Virginia and in special elections around the country, but also the reality that some of the swarm of Democratic candidates aren't even going to…

Will the Suburbs Flip the House? Watch These Seats

by Stuart Rothenberg March 6, 2018 · 8:44 AM EST

If elections and national surveys over the past year have shown us anything, it is that suburban voters could well be the key to the 2018 midterm House elections.

Turnout among minority voters and younger voters could affect the result in a district here or there, but an increase in…

Rating Change: Pennsylvania 18 Special Moves to Toss-Up

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 28, 2018 · 12:00 PM EST

Don’t say we didn’t warn you. 

“While the Pennsylvania race isn’t getting much attention now, that should change next year, considering all of the 2017 special elections eventually became national stories,” my colleague Leah Askarinam wrote in the Dec. 15 issue of Inside Elections. “By the numbers, the 18th…

Rating Change: Arizona 8 Special Gets More Vulnerable

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 28, 2018 · 9:52 AM EST

It might look like Republicans dodged a disaster in Arizona’s 8th District considering former state Sen. Steve Montenegro didn’t win Tuesday’s primary. But, as we’ve written before, Republicans seem to find new ways to make these special elections competitive, and Democrats everywhere are excited to send a message to President…

Running Against Pelosi May Not Save the GOP This Year

by Stuart Rothenberg February 27, 2018 · 9:05 AM EST

It is no secret that the Republican strategy to keep the House in 2018 includes running against Democratic House Leader Nancy Pelosi.

Both the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC have run television ads during special elections this cycle linking Democratic nominees to Pelosi, and…

The Generic Is Falling! The Generic Is Falling!

by Stuart Rothenberg February 21, 2018 · 11:01 AM EST

I hear it all the time these days. The Democratic electoral wave is petering out. The generic ballot shows the Democrats’ advantage is cratering. President Donald Trump’s job approval ratings are up. Voters are giving the president more and more credit for the economy’s strength. Lighten up, political junkies, the…

New Pennsylvania Map, New Pennsylvania House Ratings

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 20, 2018 · 5:15 PM EST

If you’ve been wondering what political handicapping is like in a redistricting cycle (or it’s been long enough for you to forget), the Pennsylvania Supreme Court offered a good reminder. With newly-drawn districts, misplaced incumbents and new district numbers, confusion is inevitable. But the bottom line for Pennsylvania is that…

2018 House Overview: On the Eve of Reality

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 16, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

After over a year of conjecture, the 2018 midterm elections are about to get real. Once the Winter Olympics come to a close on Feb. 25, it’s just a little more than a week before the country’s first set of primaries. 

The March 6 Texas primaries will be a wake-up…

2018 House Overview (Feb. 16, 2018) Alabama - Iowa

February 16, 2018 · 2:29 PM EST

Alabama. Feb. 9 filing deadline. June 5 primary.

2nd District (Martha Roby, R, re-elected in 2016 with 49%). 2016 Presidential Winner: Trump 65%. State Rep. Barry Moore’s primary challenge seems even more unlikely given his $25,000 cash on hand on Dec. 31. But now Roby ($568,000 cash on hand on…

2018 House Overview (Feb. 16, 2018) Kansas - New York

February 16, 2018 · 2:28 PM EST

Kansas. June 1 filing deadline. Aug. 7 primary.

2nd District (Open; Lynn Jenkins, R, not seeking re-election). Trump 56%. The combination of an open seat and a strong Democratic candidate makes this a competitive race. Former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis ($506,000) carried the 2nd District 51-45 percent in…