House News & Analysis

Candidate Conversation - Jeff Van Drew (D)

May 4, 2018 · 2:21 PM EDT

New Jersey’s 2nd District — Rating: Tilt Democratic

Interview Date: March 15, 2018

Date of Birth: Feb. 23, 1953; New York, N.Y.

Education: Rutgers (1975); Fairleigh Dickinson Dental School (1979)

Elected Office: State Senate; State Assembly (former); Cape May County Freeholder (former); Dennis Township Mayor (former) 

Current Outlook: The combination…

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Hair in Montana Ads, Let’s Remember Candidates from Kentucky

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 28, 2018 · 10:30 AM EDT

Arizona’s 8th District Special (a): The House majority was in play before the special election and it’s in play after the special election (and more thoughts in the aftermath of the race).

Arizona’s 8th District Special (b): Two months ago, we changed our rating from Solid Republican to…

9 Thoughts After the Arizona 8 Special Election

April 25, 2018 · 12:28 AM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam 

The Associated Press declared Republican Debbie Lesko the winner in Arizona’s 8th District special election.

It’s late. Let’s do this with bullet points.

  • The House majority was in play before the Arizona results and the House majority is in play…

Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.

by Stuart Rothenberg April 23, 2018 · 12:44 PM EDT

New national polls show voters are more upbeat about President Donald Trump’s performance and more pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House. Or not.

An April 8-11 Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Trump’s job approval rating at 40 percent, while 56 percent disapproved of his performance.


Wisconsin 1: Republicans Forced to Defend Ryan Open Seat

April 20, 2018 · 2:26 PM EDT

Democrat Randy Bryce garnered national support to oust Speaker Paul Ryan from Congress, with a viral video and nickname (“Ironstache”). But now that Ryan’s decided against seeking re-election, Democrats still have a tough road ahead. President Donald Trump carried the district by 10 points in 2016 and Republicans have won…

Candidate Conversation - Xochitl Torres-Small (D)

April 20, 2018 · 2:25 PM EDT

New Mexico’s 2nd District — Rating: Likely Republican

Interview Date: March 14, 2018

Date of Birth: Nov. 15, 1984; Portland, Ore.

Education: Georgetown (2007), Univ. of New Mexico Law School (2015)

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: GOP Rep. Steve Pearce’s run for governor means there’s an…

Candidate Conversation - Javier Manjarres (R)

April 20, 2018 · 2:24 PM EDT

Florida’s 22nd District — Rating: Solid D 

Interview Date: April 11, 2018

Date of Birth: Dec. 12, 1972; Flushing, NY

Education: Broward College (attended)

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: It’s hard to imagine Republicans winning a district that Hillary Clinton carried by 16 points in a…

Candidate Conversation - Kim Schrier (D)

April 20, 2018 · 2:23 PM EDT

Washington’s 8th District — Rating: Toss-up

Interview Date: April 10, 2018

Date of Birth: Aug. 23, 1968; Los Angeles, Calif. 

Education: Univ. of California, Berkeley (1991), UC-Davis School of Medicine (1997)

Elected Office: None; first run for office

Current Outlook: Pediatrician Kim Schrier announced her challenge to GOP Rep. Dave…

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Push Polls Saga, Cynthia Nixon, and Minnesota’s 8th

April 17, 2018 · 3:00 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

Arkansas’ 2nd District: Congratulations to Democrat Clarke Tucker’s campaign for using the term “robocalls” in a press release even though the local media referred to them as a “push poll,” which it most likely wasn’t since push polls don’t exist.


Can a President Preaching Change Lead a Party of Incumbents?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 13, 2018 · 10:24 AM EDT

I have long argued that on the most fundamental level, all elections are choices between continuity and change.

The “in” party needs voters to believe that things are going well — or at least improving — while the “out” party needs to sell its message of change.

On rare occasions,…