House News & Analysis

The 2018 Midterms as the Buffet Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 3, 2018 · 8:55 AM EST

When I was a kid in small-town Oregon, my family would occasionally go to King’s Table, and my sister and I would get free rein at the buffet.

I became famous in my own family for my condiment salad — an impressive collection of bacon bits, croutons, shredded cheese, sunflower…

Goodbye Midterm Dynamic, Hello Presidential Politics

by Stuart Rothenberg November 29, 2018 · 9:15 AM EST

Midterm elections and presidential cycles have such different dynamics that the two should almost never be discussed together. That will not prevent people from doing so, but they should resist the temptation. 

Midterms tend to be referendums on the incumbent president, while each presidential election is a choice between nominees.

2018 Midterms Review: Back to Normal

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 20, 2018 · 10:59 AM EST

When Donald Trump was elected president of the United States there was a temptation to declare that none of the rules of politics mattered anymore. But the 2018 midterm elections proved that the fundamentals of running campaigns in this country are still intact.

In many ways, 2018 was a classic…

A Few Moves on the Eve of the Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 5, 2018 · 10:46 AM EST

On the eve of Election Day 2018, the battleground is largely set, but GOP prospects have dimmed in at least one suburban seat and couple Democratic longshots should be taken more seriously 

The addition of Alaska’s At-Large District and South Carolina’s 1st District brings the total number of vulnerable Republican…

2018 Election Preview: Embrace the Uncertainty

November 1, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

Two years is long enough to forget how crazy the last week of the elections is. From rumors of surprise races to breaking news events with unknown political consequences, each cycle often includes a fast and furious finish.

In the midst of uncertainty…

House Report Shorts (Nov. 1, 2018)

November 1, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

Please refer to the Oct. 26 issue for summaries of every competitive House race on our ratings chart. The following are districts with news, analysis, or polling within the last week. 


California’s 10th District (Jeff Denham, R, re-elected 52%). Clinton 49%. There’s some still some conflicting data…

Introducing Inside Elections Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR)

November 1, 2018 · 2:26 PM EDT

By Ryan Matsumoto

Inside Elections’ new statistic, which we’re calling Baseline, captures a clear picture of a congressional district or state’s political performance by accounting for all federal and state executive election results.

Baseline is defined as the trimmed mean of each party’s performance in partisan, contested statewide elections. It…

For Handicapping Midterm Races, Old Rules May No Longer Apply

by Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2018 · 7:15 AM EDT

Political handicapping is more than looking at polls and regurgitating who is ahead. Throughout an election cycle, there are signs political handicappers use to understand what is happening at a given moment and to project how races will play out in the weeks or months ahead.

During the endgame, one…

2018 Election Preview: Midterms’ Mixed Messages

October 26, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

After two years of prognostication, election results are supposed to bring clarity. But the 2018 results are poised to be a mixed bag, making it difficult to land on a single narrative. 

With President Donald Trump’s mediocre job approval rating nationally, the Senate…

House Report Shorts (Oct. 26, 2018)

October 26, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona’s 1st District (Tom O’Halleran, D, elected 51%). Trump 48%. Air Force veteran Wendy Rogers is running a serious campaign, won a competitive primary, and has no problem tying herself to the President. But her fundraising has been modest and Rogers hasn’t received much outside help against the incumbent. Lean…