House News & Analysis

Iowa 3: Axne on the Front Lines

by Jacob Rubashkin June 17, 2022 · 2:30 PM EDT

What a difference a few years makes.

In 2018, Democrats barnstormed Iowa, flipping two congressional districts, holding another, and nearly winning the deeply Republican 4th District and the governor’s mansion for the first time in over a decade.

But in 2020, Republicans stormed right back, flipping two districts, replacing their…

Report Shorts (June 17, 2022)

June 17, 2022 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama
Senate. Rep. Mo Brooks was left for politically dead after former President Donald Trump rescinded his endorsement. But he still managed to revive his campaign enough for a second-place finish, with 29 percent to Katie Boyd Britt’s 45 percent. Veteran Mike Durant’s once-high-flying effort finished third with 23…

Rating change: Texas’ 34th District moves onto fall battlefield

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 15, 2022 · 4:19 PM EDT

While it’s wise not to overreact to special election outcomes, don’t dismiss Republican Mayra Flores’ special election victory in Texas' 34th District. 

There are some reasons to qualify Tuesday’s outcome, including the fact that Republicans outspent Democrats by a sizable margin, and the seat is going to be different (and…

Pennsylvania 7: Same Faces, Different Races

by Jacob Rubashkin June 3, 2022 · 2:30 PM EDT

One of 2022’s most competitive House races will feature some familiar faces.

In the heart of the Lehigh Valley, Rep. Susan Wild will once again face CEO and philanthropist Lisa Scheller for the right to represent Pennsylvania’s 7th District, two years after Wild narrowly defeated Scheller.

The race is in…

Missouri Redistricting: Elusive Competitiveness

by Bradley Wascher June 3, 2022 · 2:29 PM EDT

One of the last states to finalize its new congressional map, Missouri, ended up with a plan that will probably keep the partisan breakdown of its delegation intact. But a pair of open-seat races still guarantees some turnover in the next Congress.

Republican Gov. Mike Parson signed off

Kansas Redistricting: Why Not Split Wyandotte?

by Bradley Wascher May 27, 2022 · 1:24 PM EDT

A drawn-out redistricting process in Kansas resulted in few alterations overall to its congressional map, but the state’s only Democratic-held seat will likely be even more competitive this November.

Kansas is no stranger to dramatic redistricting cycles, and this most recent round proved no different. Earlier in February,…

New York Redistricting Redux: Competitive Empire State

by Jacob Rubashkin May 25, 2022 · 12:36 PM EDT

It’s been a journey to get to a final congressional map in New York, but it looks as if the maps for 2022, at least, are finally completed.

Democrats in the state legislature had drawn a map designed to help their party flip as many as three GOP-held seats. But…

Louisiana Redistricting: Not Much New from Baton Rouge

by Bradley Wascher May 24, 2022 · 3:30 PM EDT

A straightforward status quo update to Louisiana’s congressional map took an anything-but-straightforward path to reality. 

With Louisiana retaining its six House districts for another decade, many Democrats had hoped for the creation of a second majority-Black seat to go alongside the current 2nd District; the state is 33…

Tennessee Redistricting: Down a Democratic District on Music Row

by Bradley Wascher May 23, 2022 · 10:46 AM EDT

Tennessee saw relatively few changes to its congressional map following the most recent round of redistricting, but new lines in the Nashville area almost ensure there will be a change in the partisan composition of its House delegation.

The Volunteer State keeps its nine congressional seats, and while most of…

2022 House Overview (May 20, 2022): Republicans Poised for Majority

May 20, 2022 · 2:45 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin

With less than six months before Election Day, Republicans remain well-positioned to win the House majority.

Midterm elections are typically a performance review on the sitting president and President Joe Biden’s job rating is negative and static. According to the latest FiveThirtyEight average,…