House News & Analysis

Ohio 15 Special: Clash Near Columbus

by Jacob Rubashkin June 18, 2021 · 2:29 PM EDT

When GOP Rep. Steve Stivers announced he would quit Congress just a few months into his sixth term to take a job as the head of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, he reduced House Republicans’ ranks by one, and created a vacancy in his Columbus-area congressional seat that will be…

While You Were Underground: A Political Update for Cicadas

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 17, 2021 · 9:26 AM EDT

After living underground for 17 years, cicadas must find the political world a confusing place. So if you see any perplexed cicadas flying around the Washington area, wondering how things changed since the spring of 2004, just send them a link to this quick update. 

Considering Republicans were in control…

Decline in Ticket-splitting Reaches Beyond Congress

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 15, 2021 · 12:14 PM EDT

While many voters like to think of themselves as independent-minded folks who consider the person before the party, the 2020 election results paint a different picture. Ticket-splitting is on life support.

The scarcity of mismatched seats at the federal level is well documented. Less than 4 percent of House members…

New Mexico 1 Special: Status Quo Results

June 4, 2021 · 2:28 PM EDT

Democrat Melanie Stansbury prevailed in Tuesday’s special election, keeping New Mexico’s 1st District in Democratic hands after Rep. Deb Haaland joined the Biden Administration as Interior Secretary. 

Considering Joe Biden’s big victory over President Donald Trump in the Albuquerque-anchored district in 2020, there wasn’t much of a chance for a…

House Report Shorts (June 4, 2021): Florida & Ohio

by Jacob Rubashkin June 4, 2021 · 2:26 PM EDT

Florida’s 10th District
With Democratic Rep. Val Demings preparing to run for the Senate, the field to succeed her has started to take shape. Former 9th judicial district state attorney Aramis Ayala, who made national headlines several years ago when she announced she would not seek the death penalty…

Could Supreme Court Supercharge Midterms With Abortion Ruling?

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 3, 2021 · 8:58 AM EDT

If redistricting hadn’t complicated the midterm elections enough, a Supreme Court decision on one of the country’s most polarizing issues has the potential to supercharge the fight for the House and Senate.

Last month, the Supreme Court announced it would hear a challenge to a new Mississippi law —…

New Mexico 1 Special: Tale of Two Races

by Jacob Rubashkin May 21, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

After a net loss of 11 seats in 2020, House Democrats left themselves very little room for error in 2022. And with such a narrow majority, Democrats have to win special elections to maintain control of their own seats even before the midterm elections in order to maintain a working…

Special Elections in Redistricting Cycles: To Play or Not to Play?

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 21, 2021 · 9:00 AM EDT

Democrats aren’t lamenting getting locked out of the special election runoff earlier this month in a Texas district they targeted previously.

But did the party miss an opportunity to bounce back from a surprising 11-seat loss in the 2020 elections? Looking back a decade ago at the special elections ahead…

Republicans Should Disband If They Don’t Win Back the House in 2022

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 18, 2021 · 9:00 AM EDT

Failure, disappointment and embarrassment. Those three feelings should come to mind for Republicans if they don’t win the House majority in 2022. 

Democrats have their narrowest majority in more than a generation, and Republicans have redistricting and history on their side in the midterm elections. There’s really no excuse for…

2022 House Overview: State-by-State Redistricting Analysis (May 7, 2021)

May 7, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin

Six months into the 2022 midterm elections, and we still don’t know the congressional lines that will define and determine the fight for the House majority. And considering Republicans need a net gain of just five seats, literally every seat matters.

The U.S.…