California 50th Special: A Mixed Blessing for the Democrats

by Stuart Rothenberg December 22, 2005 · 2:59 PM EST

April’s special election open primary in California’s 50th district, and the likely June runoff, give Democrats a terrific opportunity to demonstrate that an electoral wave is building, and that a return to power in one or both houses of Congress is possible in November.

If Democrat Francine…

For Republicans, Internal Changes Are in the Air

by Stuart Rothenberg December 19, 2005 · 1:07 AM EST

It was only a little more than one year ago thatRepublicans were united — united behind President Bush, united in their support for tax cuts and united in their fervor to defeat Democrats at the polls.

As 2005 draws to a close, Republicans are fighting among themselves over spending and…

New Print Edition: CA50 Special

December 16, 2005 · 3:26 PM EST

The new December 16, 2005 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.) Here is a sample from the current issue.

California 50: Special Election Pre-Test
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Democrats are longing for the opportunity to run…

MD Senate: Steele Memo Cites Dead Heat Poll

by Stuart Rothenberg December 15, 2005 · 10:34 AM EST

The campaign of Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) is circulating a memo to supporters that asserts that a “recent poll of 600 likely Maryland voters,” shows Steele and Representative Ben Cardin (D) deadlocked at 46%, while Steele holds a narrow 48%-44% lead over former Representative Kweisi Mfume (D)…

It’s That Time Again: Stu Picks His Winners, Losers of 2005

by Stuart Rothenberg December 15, 2005 · 7:55 AM EST

The end of the year is always a time to assess politics and politicians, which is simply another way of saying it’s time for another “winners and losers” column. Don’t get too excited if your guys won this year, though. Everything could change in 2006. The same goes for those who lost. Remember,…

The 2006 Political Landscape

December 14, 2005 · 9:55 AM EST

These are the states and races we are watching going into next year. Our state-by-state breakdown lists every 2006 race for governor and U.S. Senate, and the currently competitive House races. Subscribers to the print-edition of The Rothenberg Political Report get ratings for every race.…

For Bush, Iraq Isn’t the Vietnam War All Over Again

by Stuart Rothenberg December 12, 2005 · 9:00 AM EST

The analogy of Vietnam is trying to creep into the analysis of why President Bush may have to start pulling troops out of Iraq sooner rather than later, but the two wars differ dramatically in key ways that enhance the president’s options.

Bush’s overall job approval numbers are now somewhere…

Will Democrats Resist What Republicans Couldn’t in 1998?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 7, 2005 · 2:00 PM EST

So far, the Democratic establishment has wisely resisted the temptation to make personal attacks on the president or to respond to the call for President Bush’s impeachment emanating from the party’s vocal “progressive” wing.

But it could prove to be increasingly difficult for party leaders to…

Indignation Aside, Both Parties Are ISO an Iraq Strategy

by Stuart Rothenberg November 30, 2005 · 9:20 AM EST

“What we’ve got here is … failure to communicate.”

That’s the line actor Strother Martin uttered in the classic film “Cool Hand Luke,” but it just as easily could have been said by a thoughtful Member of the U.S. Congress in recent weeks.

Members on both sides of the aisle are sounding so…

Democrats Hope the Bluegrass State Is Just Their Color

by Stuart Rothenberg November 23, 2005 · 1:49 PM EST

While many in the national media have become infatuated with the problems of Ohio Gov. Bob Taft (R) and the possibility that Democrats can ride a wave of voter anger in the Buckeye State, neighboring Kentucky seems to offer Democrats a similar opportunity.

Like its neighbor to the north,…