Senate Landscape Not as Rosy for the GOP as It Once Was

Stuart Rothenberg March 22, 2017 · 9:16 AM EDT

If Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 presidential election, the GOP would now be headed to a dramatic 6-8 seat Senate gain next year, maybe even more, if history is any guide.

But with Donald Trump in the White House, Republican prospects are much less certain.

That doesn’t mean the GOP can’t or won’t have a successful 2018 cycle in the Senate. Given the Senate seats up, the president’s party could still win half a dozen seats or more. But there is no doubt that Trump’s victory in 2016 changed the national political environment in a way that makes next year’s midterms much more challenging for his party.

The fundamentals of the 2018 Senate elections are as favorable for one party as I have seen in my nearly 40 years of writing about and handicapping House and Senate races.

While only eight GOP Senate seats are up next year, 25 Democratic seats (including two Independents who caucus with the Democrats) are up. Many of the Democratic incumbents represent very Republican states.

This stunningly unbalanced Senate class first took shape during the 2006 midterms, when Democrats swept to victory in both the House and the Senate. Six years later, Democrats were expected to lose some of those seats. But instead, they added a couple of more Senate seats, as inept Republican nominees…

Off-Year Governors Races Look Challenging for GOP

Stuart Rothenberg March 14, 2017 · 10:00 AM EDT

Gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey will get plenty of attention this year, in part because of Donald Trump’s victory and the developing divisions in the two major parties.

Observers will be looking for possible signs that Trump’s “new” Republican Party is changing the political…

Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin’s Bid for Second Term

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Nathan L. Gonzales March 13, 2017 · 3:00 PM EDT

From recalls to top-tier Senate races, Wisconsin is never too far from the spotlight. And now that Donald Trump narrowly won the state’s 10 electoral votes in 2016 and Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is up for re-election in 2018, Wisconsin will get plenty of attention once again.

Baldwin is one of…

Illinois House: Democrats Eye Fresh Takeover Opportunities

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Nathan L. Gonzales March 13, 2017 · 2:59 PM EDT

After gaining six seats in 2016, Democrats are still two dozen short of a House majority. That doesn’t mean the House majority is out of reach for Democrats, particularly in a midterm election with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office. But they’ll need to gain multiple districts in at least a…

Candidate Conversation - David Abroms (R)

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March 13, 2017 · 2:58 PM EDT

Candidate for Georgia’s 6th District

Interview Date: March 8, 2017

Date of Birth: May 5, 1983; Birmingham, Ala.

Education: Univ. of Miami (2005); Univ. of Alabama at Birmingham (Master’s degree, 2007)

Political Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: Abroms is battling 17 other…