House News & Analysis

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Push Polls Saga, Cynthia Nixon, and Minnesota’s 8th

April 17, 2018 · 3:00 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

Arkansas’ 2nd District: Congratulations to Democrat Clarke Tucker’s campaign for using the term “robocalls” in a press release even though the local media referred to them as a “push poll,” which it most likely wasn’t since push polls don’t exist.


Can a President Preaching Change Lead a Party of Incumbents?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 13, 2018 · 10:24 AM EDT

I have long argued that on the most fundamental level, all elections are choices between continuity and change.

The “in” party needs voters to believe that things are going well — or at least improving — while the “out” party needs to sell its message of change.

On rare occasions,…

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Arizona 8 Special, Ryan’s Exit, and NFL Fashion

April 12, 2018 · 3:00 PM EDT

by Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

Arizona’s 8th District Special (a): Welcome to the big leagues, Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, who we’re learning hasn’t treated patients since 2011 and settled a malpractice lawsuit.

Arizona’s 8th District Special (b): Nathan told The Arizona Republic that “under normal conditions you…

Rating Update: GOP Open Seat in Florida Remains Solid R for Now

April 11, 2018 · 3:11 PM EDT

You could be forgiven for overlooking the retirement of Rep. Dennis Ross today, given that the Florida Republican decided to announce his decision the same morning Speaker Paul Ryan announced his decision to not seek re-election.

Ross said he’d be returning to practicing law instead of seeking a fifth…

Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Fraudulent Signatures, Roseanne, and Kindness

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 9, 2018 · 8:45 AM EDT

Florida Senate (a): GOP Gov. Rick Scott may not win the race this year, but it will be an expensive slog for Democrats and Sen. Bill Nelson, despite the confidence American Bridge projected in a memo Wednesday

Florida Senate (b): Democrats attacking Scott for being a weak vote-getter in…

When History Overtakes a Campaign Promise

by Stuart Rothenberg April 6, 2018 · 10:59 AM EDT

The press release from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was groundbreaking, if difficult to believe.

The chairman of the DCCC said his committee “will not fund any Democratic candidate who initiates attacks against their Republican opponents of an ‘intimate’ personal nature.”

In response, the National Republican Congressional Committee’s chairman made…

Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Barn Jackets, HGTV and Pop Punk Music

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 5, 2018 · 3:40 PM EDT

My inclination is to write 4,000 words about everything, so I’m trying something new by limiting myself to one line of a thought or analysis per race/existential thought. Here it goes:

Arizona’s 8th District. With EMILY’s List endorsing Democrat Hiral Tipirneni and the Republican National Committee, National Republican Congressional Committee,…

Ratings Update: Connecticut 5 Remains Solid Democratic for Now

April 2, 2018 · 9:30 PM EDT

Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty announced that she won’t run for re-election after the Connecticut Post reported that she recommended her former chief of staff for a job after facing accusations of physically and verbally harassing another staffer.

“Too many women have been harmed by harassment in the workplace,”…

How Can the GOP Turn Out Trump Voters?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 2, 2018 · 9:26 AM EDT

In my column last week, I noted that current public opinion data and recent election results point to a likely Democratic takeover of the House in the fall.

Some argue President Donald Trump’s unpopularity is already baked into the election cake, leaving Republicans little room to maneuver. But if…

Pennsylvania 6 Rating Change: Costello Decision Shifts Seat to Likely Democratic

March 24, 2018 · 11:23 PM EDT

If GOP Rep. Ryan Costello thought he could win, it sure seems like he would have run again. But despite having nearly $1.4 million in campaign funds on Dec. 31, the 41-year-old congressman is not seeking re-election in the newly-drawn 6th District of Pennsylvania. His withdrawal  takes a GOP…