House News & Analysis

New Pennsylvania Map, New Pennsylvania House Ratings

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 20, 2018 · 5:15 PM EST

If you’ve been wondering what political handicapping is like in a redistricting cycle (or it’s been long enough for you to forget), the Pennsylvania Supreme Court offered a good reminder. With newly-drawn districts, misplaced incumbents and new district numbers, confusion is inevitable. But the bottom line for Pennsylvania is that…

2018 House Overview: On the Eve of Reality

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 16, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

After over a year of conjecture, the 2018 midterm elections are about to get real. Once the Winter Olympics come to a close on Feb. 25, it’s just a little more than a week before the country’s first set of primaries. 

The March 6 Texas primaries will be a wake-up…

2018 House Overview (Feb. 16, 2018) Alabama - Iowa

February 16, 2018 · 2:29 PM EST

Alabama. Feb. 9 filing deadline. June 5 primary.

2nd District (Martha Roby, R, re-elected in 2016 with 49%). 2016 Presidential Winner: Trump 65%. State Rep. Barry Moore’s primary challenge seems even more unlikely given his $25,000 cash on hand on Dec. 31. But now Roby ($568,000 cash on hand on…

2018 House Overview (Feb. 16, 2018) Kansas - New York

February 16, 2018 · 2:28 PM EST

Kansas. June 1 filing deadline. Aug. 7 primary.

2nd District (Open; Lynn Jenkins, R, not seeking re-election). Trump 56%. The combination of an open seat and a strong Democratic candidate makes this a competitive race. Former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis ($506,000) carried the 2nd District 51-45 percent in…

2018 House Overview (Feb. 16, 2018) North Carolina - Wyoming

February 16, 2018 · 2:27 PM EST

North Carolina. Feb. 28 filing deadline. May 8 primary.

2nd District (George Holding, R, re-elected 57%). Trump 53%. Businessman Sam Searcy dropped out to run for the state Senate while tech entrepreneur Ken Romley ($304,000) and others are still running. Holding had just $386,000 but is personally wealthy. Solid R.

The GOP Catch-22 — Donald Trump

by Stuart Rothenberg February 14, 2018 · 9:05 AM EST

Even if you think Republican leaders in Congress have shown no spine in responding to President Donald Trump’s more outrageous and inappropriate comments, you ought to be willing to acknowledge that GOP legislators are caught in a no-win situation.

It’s always tempting to tell incumbents of an unpopular president’s party…

Ratings Change: Nolan Announcement Shifts Minnesota Open Seat to Toss-Up

February 9, 2018 · 11:35 AM EST

Minnesota Rep. Rick Nolan announced his retirement Friday, leaving Democrats with a vulnerable open seat to defend in a cycle when they need to gain 24 seats for a majority.

On one hand, the open seat looks like a gift to Republicans considering Donald Trump carried the district by…

The Stunning ‘Role of Government’ Numbers

by Stuart Rothenberg February 8, 2018 · 9:12 AM EST

While most people seem fascinated by shifts in presidential job approval and national ballot tests, I’ve always thought that the “role of government” question asked in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey doesn’t get the attention it deserves.

The responses to that question offer interesting insights into how voters see…

West Virginia Senate: Last Democrat Standing

by Leah Askarinam February 2, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

The path to a Democratic Senate majority cuts through West Virginia, where Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by a 42-point margin and the congressional representation has flipped from entirely Democratic to almost entirely Republican since 2000. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is the lone survivor.

But Democrats aren’t counting on losing…

Pennsylvania 18 Special: Race Starts to Heat Up

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 2, 2018 · 2:29 PM EST

Ready or not, here it comes. 

It’s been almost two months since the Alabama Senate race and the next congressional special election is just a little more than a month away. GOP state Rep. Rick Saccone and Democratic attorney Conor Lamb are set to square off on March 13 in…