House News & Analysis

2018 House Overview: Early Warning Signs for GOP

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 19, 2017 · 2:30 PM EDT

After the 2016 elections, I’ve ruled out ruling things out. 

Of course not every result has an equal chance of coming true, but I think it’s OK to embrace uncertainty for a set of elections that won’t take place for another year-and-a-half. Roughly the same people who were certain Hillary…

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) Alabama - Iowa

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May 19, 2017 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama.
2nd District (Martha Roby, R, re-elected in 2016 with 49%).
2016 Presidential Winner: Trump 65%. The congresswoman was re-elected with less than 50 percent last year when a conservative write-in candidate received nearly 11 percent after Roby pulled her support from Trump because of the Access Hollywood tape.…

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) Kansas - New York

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 19, 2017 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kansas.
2nd District (Open; Lynn Jenkins, R, not seeking re-election).
Trump 56%. The combination of an open seat and a strong Democratic candidate (former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis) makes this an interesting race, even though Trump won handily. Davis lost the 2014 gubernatorial race to Gov. Sam…

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) North Carolina - Wyoming

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May 19, 2017 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Carolina.
9th District (Robert Pittenger, R, re-elected 58%)
. Trump 54%. The federal investigation into the congressman closed without charges, but Democrats aren’t letting Pittenger off the hook. The party is poised to land an interesting recruit: solar energy financier Dan McCready, who is a Duke University and Harvard…

Lessons for Trump Detractors, Members of Congress From a Loyalty Expert

Nathan L. Gonzales May 18, 2017 · 11:40 AM EDT

You’ve probably never heard of James Kane, but elected officials, party strategists, and even some reporters could learn from his perspective as a behavioral scientist (instead of a partisan hack) about how to fracture President Donald Trump’s base and the future of the two parties. 

I rarely have time…

Should Democrats Recruit Pragmatists or Progressives?

Stuart Rothenberg May 16, 2017 · 8:55 AM EDT

A Republican friend of mine recently argued Democrats need to run candidates like former congressman Heath Shuler if they are going to become competitive again as a national party. The Democrats, he insisted, are just too liberal, especially culturally, to win where they must.

Given the Democrats’ ongoing debate over…

Florida 27: Taking Her Talents to Retirement

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 5, 2017 · 2:29 PM EDT

Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has been in office so long that her first campaign manager served two terms as governor of Florida and his brother served two terms as president since she was first elected to Congress. But now that she’s not seeking re-election, Democrats have an opportunity to win…

It’s OK to Wait Before Jumping to Conclusions

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 5, 2017 · 2:28 PM EDT

Everyone take a deep breath. Democrats taunting Republicans on the House Floor. Republicans taking a victory lap in the White House Rose Garden. It’s all a little premature. 

First of all, the American Health Care Act isn’t even law yet and it’s not clear what it will look like if/when…

Candidate Conversation - Harley Rouda (D)

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May 5, 2017 · 2:27 PM EDT

Candidate for California’s 48th District

Interview Date: April 25, 2017

Date of Birth: Dec. 10, 1961; Columbus, Ohio

Education: Univ. of Ky. (1984); Capital Univ. Law School (J.D. 1986); Ohio State Univ. (MBA 2000)

Political Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: Rouda is a credible challenger to long-time…

Florida 27: Ros-Lehtinen Retirement Creates Vulnerable GOP Open Seat

Nathan L. Gonzales May 1, 2017 · 11:31 AM EDT

Long-time GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen announced her decision to not seek re-election next year, leaving behind a difficult open seat for her party to defend.

The Florida congresswoman is one of 23 Republicans to represent districts where Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump in the most recent presidential election. 

Clinton…