Romney’s Bid for the White House Looks Decidedly Uphill

by Stuart Rothenberg January 30, 2006 · 9:47 AM EST

The Republicans begin the marathon toward the 2008 presidential election without a prohibitive favorite for their nomination. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani lead in early polling, but their initial strength comes from their celebrity status, not their…

A Good Democratic Year Is Building

by Stuart Rothenberg January 29, 2006 · 8:21 PM EST

With a little over nine months to go until Election Day, Democrats are headed for gains in the United States House of Representatives. The only question is exactly how big those gains will be.

Democrats need a net gain of fifteen seats to get to the magic number of 218 seats and control of the…

New Print Edition: Illinois 6 & Ohio Senate

January 27, 2006 · 12:04 PM EST

The new January 27, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.)

Illinois 6: Fighting Chance
By Nathan L. Gonzales

At first glance, you might think Illinois’ 6th Congressional District is the only race in the…

Ohio Senate: Buckeye Battle

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 27, 2006 · 10:00 AM EST

Ohio is as close to a political disaster area for Republicans than any state in the country. Out-going Gov. Bob Taft (R) pleaded no contest to four misdemeanor charges for accepting gifts for political favors, and his job approval ratings crack 20% on a good day.

It is in this environment that…

Illinois 6: Fighting Chance

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 27, 2006 · 10:00 AM EST

At first glance, you might think Illinois’ 6th Congressional District is the only race in the country. It’s received more media coverage recently than the other 434 Congressional districts combined.

That’s partially because Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel (IL)…

Rothenberg’s 2006 Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

by Stuart Rothenberg January 25, 2006 · 4:06 PM EST

For the past few election cycles, I have followed the most vulnerable House open seats as a way of monitoring the two parties’ overall prospects for November. This cycle, there are relatively few inherently competitive open seats. But some open seats that would normally be reliably Republican…

Lott’s Decision Leaves Democrats Little Room

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 24, 2006 · 9:03 PM EST

Republican Sen. Trent Lott’s announcement this week that he will seek a fourth term in Mississippi leaves Democrats with little room for error if they are to have any chance of capturing the Senate in November. ‘

Party strategists on both sides of the aisle agreed that Democrats would have no…

Eh? Are Republicans as Tone Deaf as They Appear?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 21, 2006 · 10:03 AM EST

Sometimes, politics involves Machiavellian manipulation and elaborate scenarios based on risky judgments and hard-to-decipher bits of information. Other times, it’s so patently obvious what to do that it’s hard to understand why politicians choose an alternative route.

Presented with a rare…

Why Kaine Should Refuse Democratic Response

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 19, 2006 · 1:30 PM EST

National Democratic leaders are looking to newly-elected Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia to deliver their party’s response to President Bush’s State of the Union speech at the end of the month. But if Kaine wants to help himself, he should take this tremendous opportunity…and decline the invitation.

Will Veterans Make the Best House Candidates in ’06?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 11, 2006 · 9:14 AM EST

For months, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, liberal Web logs and major media outlets have been trumpeting the large class of Democratic House candidates who are veterans of the military.

More than three dozen non-incumbent veterans are running for Congress this year, all but a…