Key Senate Races Start to Take Shape

by Jacob Rubashkin March 6, 2020 · 2:29 PM EST

The fight for the Senate got a little clearer with primaries in three Super Tuesday states. But the biggest news this week might have been in Montana, where Democrats are hoping for a last-minute boost before Monday’s filing deadline.

Once again, the Republican primary for an Alabama…

Presidential Battlegrounds: Arizona

by Ryan Matsumoto March 6, 2020 · 2:28 PM EST

If the Democratic nominee won all three of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania this November, he would win back the White House (assuming no other changes to the 2016 electoral map). But if President Donald Trump were to win just one of those states, Democrats would need to make up ground…

House Primary Results: Alabama, North Carolina, Texas

March 6, 2020 · 2:27 PM EST

1st District (Greater Mobile) Open; Bradley Byrne, R, ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate.
Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl and former state Sen. Bill Hightower advanced to a March 31 runoff of the GOP nomination. One of them will be a member of Congress next year. Current rating:…

Super Tuesday Senate Primary Update (March 3, 2020)

by Jacob Rubashkin March 4, 2020 · 12:04 AM EST

The fight for the Senate got a little clearer Tuesday night with primaries in three states. 

Once again, the Republican primary for an Alabama Senate seat is going to a runoff, and the president has a complicated relationship with one of the two finalists. 

Jeff Sessions, who previously…

Eight Thoughts After Charleston Debate

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 26, 2020 · 8:54 AM EST

With South Carolina and Super Tuesday looming, and the potential of a second term for President Donald Trump staring the party in the face, seven Democratic candidates didn’t miss an opportunity to attack each other during the debate in Charleston, South Carolina, on Tuesday night. But will any of…

2020 House Overview: The Bernie Factor

February 21, 2020 · 2:30 PM EST

By Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

The House majority wasn’t regarded as in play, unless Democrats were to nominate Bernie Sanders for president. Now that the Vermont senator is a legitimate frontrunner, his impact from the top of the ticket on Democratic control of the House should be taken…

2020 House Overview (February 21, 2020): Alabama - Iowa

February 21, 2020 · 2:29 PM EST

1st District (Northeastern Arizona) Tom O’Halleran, D, re-elected 54%.
Trump 48%. Republican attorney Tiffany Shedd, who lost in the 2018 primary, is running again and was expected to be a better candidate. But she had just $112,000 in campaign funds on Dec. 31. Former state Sen. Barbara…

2020 House Overview (February 21, 2020): Kansas - New York

February 21, 2020 · 2:28 PM EST

2nd District (Topeka, Lawrence, eastern rural Kansas) Steve Watkins, R, elected 48%.
Trump 56%. Watkins ethical problems made this race closer than it should have been in 2018 and it could be a GOP problem once again. State Treasurer Jake LaTurner had $591,000 in the bank on Dec. 31 but…

2020 House Overview (February 21, 2020): North Carolina - Wyoming

February 21, 2020 · 2:27 PM EST

North Carolina. 
2nd District (Raleigh) Open; George Holding, R, not seeking re-election.
Clinton 60%. Court-ordered redistricting redrew the 2nd to encompass deep-blue Raleigh and much of surrounding Wake County. Rather than fight for his life, Holding chose to retire. 2016 Senate nominee Deborah…

Maine Senate: Is Susan Collins Already Behind?

by Stuart Rothenberg February 21, 2020 · 2:26 PM EST

A February 10-13 SocialSphere survey for Colby College (my alma mater) about the Maine Senate race certainly generated plenty of buzz on Tuesday. My own reaction was less than enthusiastic.

I tweeted that “The ballot test is not consistent with other (unreleased) numbers, and it conveys a…