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2019-20 Gubernatorial Overview (Feb. 1, 2019): Lean Opportunities

by Leah Askarinam February 1, 2019 · 2:30 PM EST

The final round of gubernatorial races before the new decade is starting to take shape, giving both political parties a handful of opportunities to shape policy and influence redistricting after the 2020 Census. 

Fourteen states are holding gubernatorial elections over the next two years — three…

2019-20 Gubernatorial Overview (Feb. 1, 2019)

February 1, 2019 · 2:29 PM EST

DELAWARE. John Carney (D), elected 2016 (58%). John Carney first ran for governor in 2008, but lost the Democratic primary to Jack Markell. Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, son of Vice President Joe Biden, was expected to win Markell’s open seat in 2016, but he died of cancer in 2015. Carney,…

Too Early for Senate Ratings?

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 1, 2019 · 2:28 PM EST

A couple decades ago, The Rothenberg Political Report would wait months before placing individual Senate races into specific ratings categories, admitting that the election cycle was far from taking shape. But that would be almost unthinkable today. For example, most media outlets that handicap…

Report Shorts (Feb. 1, 2019)

February 1, 2019 · 2:27 PM EST

California’s 50th District. Alex Balkin became the second Democrat to announce a challenge to indicted GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter. 2018 nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar was the first. Balkin formerly worked at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Department of Defense. The district is considerably…

Maine Senate: How Vulnerable is Susan Collins?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 25, 2019 · 9:10 AM EST

If Sen. Susan Collins runs for a fifth term, she ought to expect a very different race than in the past. Forget coasting to victory, no matter the opponent or even the nature of the election cycle.

Collins will start off as vulnerable — a top Democratic target in a state carried by Hillary Clinton…

Texas House: Emerging Battlegrounds

by Leah Askarinam January 18, 2019 · 2:30 PM EST

Democrats didn’t win every competitive House race in Texas in 2018, but they picked up two Republican seats. And some strategists are talking about The Lone Star State being the next Orange County, Calif., where Democrats organized to pick up four seats in 2018 after decades of Republican control.…

Iowa’s 4th District: A King Without a Kingdom?

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 18, 2019 · 2:29 PM EST

GOP Rep. Steve King of Iowa prevailed in a close general election in 2018, but he could face competitive primary and general election races in 2020.

State Sen. Randy Feenstra didn’t mention King by name when he announced his candidacy on Jan. 9 but plans to challenge the eight-term congressman in…

Report Shorts (Jan. 18, 2019)

January 18, 2019 · 2:28 PM EST

California’s 50th District. Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar came within 4 points of defeating GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter in 2016 and announced he will seek a rematch in 2020. But there’s a chance neither man makes it to the next general election. 

Hunter is under indictment and facing trial in September,…

Texas 2nd District: Live From Houston

by Leah Askarinam January 18, 2019 · 2:27 PM EST

Saturday Night Live helped make Republican Dan Crenshaw a national figure before he was elected to Congress. But some GOP strategists had already identified him as a rising star.

The 2nd District had key components that made it a Democratic takeover opportunity in 2018: an open seat in a…