Senate News & Analysis

Ratings Change: Alabama Senate Moves to Toss-up

November 14, 2017 · 4:34 PM EST

Roy Moore is testing a once-hypothetical question: What would it take for a Democrat to win a statewide race in Alabama?

Under normal circumstances, Alabama would elect a Republican to Senate, even a candidate as polarizing as Moore. But the situation changed when The Washington Post reported allegations of…

Please Don’t Call It a Push Poll: Transgender Edition

Nathan L. Gonzales November 7, 2017 · 4:23 PM EST

Danica Roem and Bob Marshall are facing off in an unusually high-profile race for the Virginia House of Delegates — Roem, a transgender Democrat, is challenging Marshall, a conservative Republican. The race reached a new level in the final weeks when allegations of a so-called push poll came to light.

Why You Should Focus on Independents from Now to the Midterms

Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2017 · 9:03 AM EDT

In my last column, I wrote about Donald Trump’s job approval ratings among Republicans, Democrats and Independents, noting that his standing among all groups is important. But my primary focus for 2018 should be on Independents, who are likely to be the canary in the coal mine for the…

Arizona Senate: Flake Retires But Race Still a Toss-Up

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October 27, 2017 · 2:26 PM EDT

Sen. Jeff Flake’s announcement shouldn’t have come as a surprise to Inside Elections readers, considering we mentioned the scenario in our Sept. 15 issue.

Rarely does a party prefer an open seat over losing an incumbent. But Flake’s retirement may help the GOP hold his Arizona seat, giving Republicans an…

Comparing Trump’s Job Ratings to Obama’s

Stuart Rothenberg October 26, 2017 · 2:04 PM EDT

Nine months into their respective terms, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is substantially worse than Barack Obama’s was among both partisan groups and Independents, according to Gallup polls.

Trump’s average job approval numbers for the week of October 9 stood at 79 percent among Republicans, 8 percent among…

What Happened to Mountain Republicans in the South?

Stuart Rothenberg October 3, 2017 · 1:11 PM EDT

Even when Democrats dominated the so-called Solid South, the GOP showed strength in mountain areas of the region. Northwestern Arkansas, eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina and western Virginia all had substantial Republican sympathies.

But now that the national Republican Party has transitioned from the Party of Lincoln to the party…

2018 Senate Overview: Divided and Conquer?

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Nathan L. Gonzales September 29, 2017 · 2:30 PM EDT

At the beginning of the cycle, it seemed almost certain that Republicans would expand their majority. With 25 Democratic senators up for re-election in 2018, compared to just eight Republican senators, the map is dramatically tilted in the GOP’s favor. But nearly halfway through the midterm cycle, even the best…

2018 Senate Overview (Sept. 9, 2017): Alabama - Maine

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September 29, 2017 · 2:29 PM EDT

ALABAMA. Open; Luther Strange (R) defeated in Sept. primary. Dec. 12 Special Election. Roy Moore, the former chief justice of the state Supreme Court, won the GOP primary runoff on Sept. 26 over Sen. Luther Strange, who had been appointed early this year to replace Jeff Sessions. Moore had been…

2018 Senate Overview (Sept. 9, 2017): Maryland - Ohio

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September 29, 2017 · 2:28 PM EDT

MARYLAND. Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%).  Feb. 27 filing deadline. June 26 primary. Unless GOP Gov. Larry Hogan decides to challenge Cardin instead of seeking re-election (which he’s not going to do), Republicans aren’t going to win this seat. In 2016, Clinton defeated Trump 60-34 percent and…

2018 Senate Overview (Sept. 9, 2017): Pennsylvania - Wyoming

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September 29, 2017 · 2:27 PM EDT

PENNSYLVANIA. Bob Casey Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%). March 6 filing deadline. May 15 primary. After Trump’s 49-48 percent win over Clinton and Sen. Pat Toomey’s re-election in 2016, there was some reason for GOP optimism about defeating Casey next year. But with Republicans struggling to put the…