Presidential Races Taking on Chess Match Quality

by Stuart Rothenberg July 3, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

As in chess, where a competitor decides what to do based on his or her opponent’s moves, Republican and Democratic primary voters and caucus attendees are likely to spend as much time in 2007 and early 2008 watching their opponents as thinking about their own choices.

Since both parties are…

New Print Edition: Maryland Senate & Vermont At-Large

June 30, 2006 · 2:47 PM EDT

The new June 30, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.)

Maryland Senate: Race Matters
By Nathan L. Gonzales

If national Republicans are looking at reliably Democratic Maryland for one of their best Senate…

Who Created the Phony Al Gore Boomlet?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 29, 2006 · 12:01 AM EDT

I’m just now recovering from the most recent frenzy about a possible Al Gore presidential bid in 2008, and I’m hopeful that we’ll still have another few months before we get our next “Is Al Gore changing his mind and running for president in 2008?” boomlet.

But another round of Gore…

Connecticut Senate: Lieberman Faces Serious Test From Lamont

June 27, 2006 · 12:01 AM EDT

National Democratic insiders aren’t pulling many punches when it comes to Sen. Joe Lieberman’s (D-CT) primary in Connecticut against businessman Ned Lamont. They are saying that Lieberman could lose.

The senator is having considerable problems with older white men, and his allies are counting…

Montana Senate: Is Conrad Burns Headed for Defeat This Fall?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 26, 2006 · 12:01 AM EDT

Once burned, twice shy: That’s simply another way of saying that I’m more cautious about handicapping the Montana Senate race than I am other Senate contests.

Just days before the 2000 elections, my newsletter moved GOP Sen. Conrad Burns from “Toss-up” to “Lean Takeover.” That rating change was…

Michigan Governor: Falling Star- What Ever Happened to Jennifer Granholm?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 22, 2006 · 12:10 AM EDT

If only Canadian-born Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) had been born in the United States, many state and national political commentators said a couple of years ago, she might well have become the Democratic nominee for vice president in 2008 or the party’s White House candidate in 2012.

Webb Victory Poses Dilemma for Warner

June 20, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Former Secretary of the Navy James Webb (D) won the Democratic nomination in Virginia and will take on Sen. George Allen (R-VA) in the general election. But former Gov. Mark Warner (D) may have a tough decision to make in the coming months.

Webb rode to victory on the backs of Democratic voters in…

Bill Richardson: Looking Like a Go for 2008

by Stuart Rothenberg June 19, 2006 · 12:01 AM EDT

Officially, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) is focused on his November re-election race, even though it’s expected to be relatively easy. And as chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, Richardson also hopes to lead his party to a gain of at least a few more governorships.

But some…

New Print Edition: Missouri Senate, Connecticut 5, & Governors Ratings

June 16, 2006 · 3:21 PM EDT

The new June 16, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.)

Missouri Senate: Guilt By Association?
By Nathan L. Gonzales

If you look up “bellwether” in the dictionary, you might see the state of Missouri in the…

Good News Finds the Republicans. But for How Long?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 15, 2006 · 12:04 AM EDT

California’s 50th district special election. The death of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq. The foiling of a major terrorist plot in Canada. A cooling of tensions over Iran. The unemployment rate down to 4.6 percent.

After a 17-month string of virtually unbroken bad news,…