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Presidential Snapshot in Time (July 24, 2020)

by Bradley Wascher July 24, 2020 · 10:00 AM EDT

There’s little reason to believe Joe Biden’s polling lead has changed over the last fortnight, but that advantage over President Donald Trump still sits in a league of its own.

Across 17 national polls released during the past two weeks, Biden led Trump by an average of 7.5 points (48.5…

TV Ads Shape Presidential Battleground

by Steve Passwaiter July 20, 2020 · 11:51 AM EDT

While much of what happens during a presidential race is hidden these days, the campaigns can’t hide their TV buys. Now, a few months into the general election, the advertising reveals volumes about campaign strategies and resources.

Since April 1, a reasonable start date to the Trump-Biden…

Electoral College Outlook: Biden Has the Edge

July 17, 2020 · 10:30 AM EDT

7/24/20, 12:30pm: This article has been updated with more recent polling averages.

A month ago, a public poll showed President Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just 2 points in Arkansas. That would be easy to dismiss as an outlier, considering Trump won the state by 27 points four years ago,…

2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): Democrats Poised to Control the Senate

July 10, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

The Senate has been in play for at least nine months, but Democratic chances of winning control of the chamber have improved significantly in the last few weeks. 

As Joe Biden has grown a significant lead over President Donald Trump in the race for the…

2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): Alabama - Kansas

July 10, 2020 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). July 14 GOP Runoff (was March 31). Republicans will finally select their nominee next week in the runoff between former Auburn head football coach Tommy Tuberville (who finished first in the primary with 33 percent) and former Sen. Jeff Sessions…

2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): Kentucky - New Mexico

July 10, 2020 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kentucky. Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%), 1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%) and 2014 (56%). A sleepy Democratic primary victory by veteran Amy McGrath turned into a nationally-watched affair as state Rep. Charles Booker surged in the final weeks with endorsements from Sen.…

2020 Senate Overview (July 10, 2020): North Carolina - Wyoming

July 10, 2020 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Carolina. Thom Tillis (R), elected 2014 (49%). The good news for Tillis is that he’s been consistently locked in a competitive race in a presidential battleground state that Trump won by 3.5 points in 2016, and the president has been competitive with Biden for most of the cycle. The bad news…

Presidential Snapshot in Time: July 10, 2020

by Bradley Wascher July 10, 2020 · 2:26 PM EDT

Independence Day 2020 was a time of reflection for some, a time of celebration for others, and time off for pollsters. Relatively few new polls were released in the days surrounding the holiday, but available surveys still suggest a wide gap between Joe Biden and President Donald Trump.

In…