President News & Analysis

How Democrats Could Lose the Popular Vote

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 22, 2019 · 2:29 PM EDT

After winning the most votes in six of the last seven presidential elections and buoyed by demographic changes, Democrats are eager to rid the country of the Electoral College and elect a president with a national popular vote. 

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is the latest Democrat to call for abolishing…

Can a Senator be Nominated and Win the White House?

by Stuart Rothenberg March 13, 2019 · 2:28 PM EDT

The abundance of sitting senators running for president seems to confirm the old joke that a senator looking into a mirror sees a future president. But it doesn’t say much about whether the Senate is a good springboard to the White House. Historically, it has not been.

Sitting senators have…

An Early Look at the 2020 Presidential Race

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 8, 2019 · 2:29 PM EST

When handicapping an election, it’s helpful to know where the race is happening and who the nominees are. And that’s problematic when trying to project the 2020 race for president that will happen 20 months from now. 

Based on the last few election cycles, the initial presidential battleground consists of…

Democrats are Right to be Wary of Howard Schultz

by Stuart Rothenberg February 20, 2019 · 9:05 AM EST

The frenzy over businessman Howard Schultz’s announcement that he is considering an independent run for president is understandable.

Democrats think President Donald Trump is headed for defeat in a one-on-one general election contest, and anything that changes that trajectory improves his re-election prospects.

Unfortunately, few of the people who panicked…

More Presidential questions for the Democrats

by Stuart Rothenberg February 13, 2019 · 9:12 AM EST

In my last column, I raised three questions Democrats need to answer about the kind of nominee they want in 2020. Do they want an insurgent outsider, do they need someone with experience and must they have a woman and/or African-American on the ticket? In this column, I look at…

What do Democrats Want in a President?

by Stuart Rothenberg February 7, 2019 · 11:00 AM EST

Democrats have a hoard of hopefuls aiming for their party’s 2020 nomination, so what qualities and characteristics are Democratic primary voters and caucus attendees likely to value?

Electability is certainly a factor, but what makes a potential nominee electable?

I’ll save the all-important ideology question — does the party need…

A Few Thoughts on the State of the Union Address

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 6, 2019 · 8:51 PM EST

I did something dangerous Tuesday night. I watched the State of the Union and the Democratic response on my own, without Twitter as a crutch. I even watched the C-SPAN feed on my phone in order to avoid commentary from the networks and cable channels.

My goal was to avoid…

5 reasons why there’s still no end to the shutdown

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 14, 2019 · 12:06 PM EST

Three weeks into the government shutdown, I’m not sure how this standoff ends, but I do know there are multiple reasons for how we got here.

What’s the problem? Democrats and Republicans can’t find a solution because they’re trying to solve two different problems. If you listen carefully, Democrats are…

North Carolina: Blue Wave Steered Clear of ‘Blue Moon’ Election

by Leah Askarinam December 14, 2018 · 2:30 PM EST

Democrats gained at least 40 House seats in races across the country, but the wave’s course veered from two key states: Ohio and North Carolina.

Looking at top-of-the-ballot results, it’s no surprise that Democrats failed to chip into Ohio’s House delegation. Democratic performance statewide indicated a fundamental problem for the…

Post-Midterms Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR) Update

by Ryan Matsumoto December 14, 2018 · 2:29 PM EST

Last month, Inside Elections revealed two of our new statistics: Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR).

Baseline captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal and state election results over the last four election cycles into a single average. VAR measures the relative strength of political…