President News & Analysis

The Certainty of Death, Taxes, and White Evangelicals

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 19, 2017 · 8:30 AM EST

As the electorate evolves with each election cycle because of changing demographics, there is one constant: white evangelicals. Once again, they made up one-quarter of the electorate and voted heavily for the Republican presidential nominee.

White voters, as a share of the electorate, have been on a steady descent from…

The First Time I Met Illinois Senate Candidate Barack Obama

by Stuart Rothenberg January 17, 2017 · 8:30 AM EST

With the end of the Obama Administration approaching, I recently looked back at the notes from my two meetings with Barack Obama during his run for the United States Senate.  Obama was not well known then, and he was regarded as nothing more than a long-shot for the Democratic nomination. 

Trump Should Get Off to a Fast Start – But Will He?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 10, 2017 · 8:00 AM EST

If you look only at Donald Trump’s recent “favorable” ratings, you might well think him politically weak.

After all, substantially more Americans continue to have an unfavorable opinion of him than a favorable one in post-election polls, and he lost the popular vote by almost 2.9 million votes.  


Pelosi Remains But ‘Winter is Coming’ for Democrats

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 7, 2016 · 9:08 AM EST

Nancy Pelosi survived her leadership election and will continue to lead House Democrats in the next Congress. But the fact that she received a credible challenge, who was supported by one-third of her members, is yet another sign that the times have changed for the Democratic Party.

For the last…

Donald Trump, Golden Shepherds, and the 2016 Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 2, 2016 · 3:00 PM EST

I missed it. The most important election of my kids’ lifetimes and I missed it. I just didn’t see how the Golden Shepherd would defeat the Monarch Butterfly to become the official mascot of their public elementary school.

All the data pointed to a Monarch victory. A majority of the…

Under Next Electoral Map, Trump Would Still Have Won

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 1, 2016 · 9:00 AM EST

Population trends are working against the Republican Party — at least that’s what we’ve been told.

But a combination of the 2016 presidential results and early looks at reapportionment after the 2020 census shows that the short-term changes may not be as dramatic as once believed.

Fifteen states are likely…

Does the Country Even Want to Come Together?

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 14, 2016 · 9:15 AM EST

In the wake of elections, there’s a common refrain and an implicit mandate: “come together.” But unity might not just only be impossible under the circumstances, I’m not convinced most Americans even want it.

“I say it is time for us to come together as one united people,” President-elect Donald…

Ratings Change: Obama State Shifts to Trump

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 7, 2016 · 5:24 PM EST

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to have a narrow but distinct advantage over Donald Trump in the presidential race, but one state that President Barack Obama won twice looks to have slipped away from the Democrat’s reach. 

Obama won Iowa twice with little fanfare, but Trump is well-positioned…

The Presidential Race Someone Has to Win

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 3, 2016 · 3:58 PM EDT

For all the partisanship and polarization in this country, the 2016 presidential race features Republican and Democratic nominees who appear determined to gift the presidency to the other party. 

Just when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton looks like she’s about to open up an insurmountable lead, another story pops…

Democrats Look to Expand Presidential Map

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 21, 2016 · 2:59 PM EDT

Three presidential debates are in the books, and the biggest surprise might be that Donald Trump participated in all of them. In spite of all the media attention, Wednesday’s debate probably didn’t change the fundamental dynamics of the race, and Hillary Clinton will likely maintain her solid advantage.

Before the…