House News & Analysis

23 of 25 Vulnerable Democrats Vote in Favor of Upton Bill

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 19, 2013 · 10:08 AM EST

Virtually every House Democrat listed as vulnerable by The Rothenberg Political Report voted for Republican Michigan Rep. Fred Upton’s Keep Your Health Plan Act.

Two vulnerable Democrats voted against the bill: Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona and John F. Tierney of Massachusetts.

Overall, 39 Democrats joined with the…

A Critical Few Weeks for Democrats? It Could Get Worse

by Stuart Rothenberg November 18, 2013 · 9:24 AM EST

No wonder some Democratic strategists are nervous about the next few weeks.

President Barack Obama’s job approval numbers have taken a dive in two recent polls, and party insiders fear that every other poll released in the foreseeable future will show that the rollout of the president’s health…

For Some Candidates, Home Is Where the Opportunity Is

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 12, 2013 · 10:23 AM EST

We all know that candidates and members don’t have to live in a House district in order to run or even represent that area. And I’ve written about a number of top-tier Democratic hopefuls this cycle who don’t live in the district where they are campaigning.

But…

Nebraska 2: Mr. Terry’s Wild Ride

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 8, 2013 · 3:29 PM EST

With Lee Terry it’s either feast or famine. The Republican congressman has represented Nebraska’s 2nd District for over a dozen years and each re-election seems to be either a laugher or a barnburner.

Every two years, Terry seems to do just enough to earn another term. But Democrats…

RPR Report Shorts (New Jersey 3, Alabama 1, North Carolina 6)

November 8, 2013 · 3:28 PM EST

Alabama’s 1st District. Well-funded establishment candidate Bradley Byrne won Tuesday’s GOP primary runoff, 52 percent to 48 percent, over under-funded anti-establishment candidate Dean Young in the special election to replace former Rep. Jo Bonner (R). Byrne is the heavy favorite to win the December 17 special general election in…

Victory Is in the Eye of the Beholder in New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama

by Stuart Rothenberg November 8, 2013 · 9:51 AM EST

Tuesday’s election results offer something for everyone.

Democrats can look at Virginia and conclude that Republican “extremism” on social issues like abortion, contraception and guns, combined with the deep divisions that appeared in the Alabama 1st District GOP primary results, continue to offer them opportunities for 2014 and…

New Jersey’s 3rd District Now Open, Now a Tossup

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 7, 2013 · 2:32 PM EST

GOP Rep. Jon Runyan’s retirement takes New Jersey’s 3rd District from the outskirts of the competitive race conversation to close to the epicenter.

Democrats have had their eye on the seat, considering President Barack Obama carried the district with 52 percent, although Runyan didn’t look particularly vulnerable. But…

Two House Candidates Who Stumbled Over Simple Questions

by Stuart Rothenberg November 6, 2013 · 2:28 PM EST

Retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally is personable and engaging, and her 2,454-vote loss to Democratic Rep. Ron Barber in Arizona’s 2nd District in 2012 demonstrates that she has appeal as a congressional candidate.

But none of that exempts the 47-year-old Republican, who is running again this cycle…

6 Democratic House Candidates With Plenty of Potential

by Stuart Rothenberg October 30, 2013 · 9:58 AM EDT

In this political environment, not having an extensive legislative record can be an asset. Not surprisingly then, three of six Democratic House candidates I interviewed recently have never before sought elective office, and a fourth was elected as a judge, not a legislator. (I will discuss a seventh…

‘The Political Middle Has Disappeared’

by Stuart Rothenberg October 25, 2013 · 9:36 AM EDT

A terrific post-shutdown “after action report” by Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who is one-half of the bipartisan polling team that conducts the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, includes one slide (No. 7) that I found particularly instructive.

Titled “the political middle has disappeared,” it shows…