Senate News & Analysis

Breaking Down the Demographics of the 118th Congress

by Erin Covey January 11, 2023 · 11:59 AM EST

Slowly but surely, the U.S. Congress has begun to better reflect the nation.

But even as the House and the Senate have gradually become more diverse, the rate at which that happens has appeared to decline. The number of women and nonwhite members in the 118th Congress has only marginally…

2024 Senate Overview: Majority on the Line, Again

January 6, 2023 · 2:30 PM EST

By Nathan L. Gonzales, Erin Covey, and Jacob Rubashkin

Republicans failed to take control of the Senate in 2022, but they’ll have another good shot at it in 2024. 

The GOP fumbled a tremendous opportunity last cycle running in a midterm election with an unpopular Democratic president. Republicans needed a…

2024 Senate Overview (January 6, 2023) Arizona - Maine

January 6, 2023 · 2:29 PM EST

Arizona. Kyrsten Sinema (I) elected 2018 as a Democrat (50%). Filing deadline April 2024. Sinema’s decision to change parties throws a wrench into the battle for Arizona’s competitive Senate seat. The independent senator has not said if she will run for re-election. But if she does run, the Democratic Party’s…

2024 Senate Overview (January 6, 2023): Pennsylvania - Wyoming

January 6, 2023 · 2:27 PM EST

Pennsylvania. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%), 2018 (56%). Filing deadline TBD. After a disappointing midterm election for Pennsylvania Republicans, they’re hoping to unseat Keystone State’s senior senator in 2024. Casey is the longest serving Democratic senator in Pennsylvania’s history and has deep ties to the state…

Michigan Senate: The Race to Succeed Stabenow Is On

by Erin Covey January 5, 2023 · 11:25 AM EST

After serving in the Senate for the past 22 years, Debbie Stabenow announced this morning that she won’t seek re-election in 2024. The race to succeed the Democratic senator is guaranteed to draw serious attention and resources from both parties.

The Democratic Party has a deep bench in the Great…

Vote Above Replacement: 2022 Senate Elections

by Bradley Wascher December 16, 2022 · 2:28 PM EST

Democrats defied expectations by expanding their Senate majority in 2022 — but what exactly were those expectations? And Republicans nominated a number of underwhelming candidates, but how much did they actually underperform? Vote Above Replacement (VAR) can provide some empirical context to 2022 narratives.

VAR measures the strength…

Georgia Senate Runoff: How Warnock Won

by Ryan Matsumoto December 16, 2022 · 2:27 PM EST

After two decades of GOP dominance, Georgia has now voted for Democratic senators three times in the past two years, most recently in this month’s runoff election. How did it happen?

A handful of key trends propelled Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to victory in the Senate runoff. The Democratic senator…

Arizona Senate: Sinema’s Decision Complicates 2024 Race

by Erin Covey December 9, 2022 · 11:00 AM EST

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party doesn’t have an immediate impact on Democrats’ control of the Senate — but it does complicate the 2024 battleground race in Arizona.

Since the senator said she will not caucus with Republicans, her decision will not affect Democrats’ new majority. If…

Baseline Update: Which States Shifted the Most After 2022

by Bradley Wascher December 2, 2022 · 2:29 PM EST

With the 2022 midterm elections (almost) in the books, we can begin putting the results into the broader context of past results to see how much states and districts shifted. One of the best ways to identify shifts in partisanship is through our Baseline metric. 

Baseline captures a state or…

Senate Results: How Much Did GOP Candidates Underperform?

by Ryan Matsumoto December 2, 2022 · 2:28 PM EST

One of the prevailing narratives of the 2022 midterms is that Democrats exceeded expectations because of underwhelming Republican candidates. 

In late October, a New York Times/Siena College poll found that even though voters in the key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania preferred Republicans to control the…