Senate News & Analysis

Eight States That Will Decide the Senate Majority

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 1, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

There are at least 14 competitive Senate races around the country, but knowing the outcome in just eight of the hottest contests will be all the evidence you need in figuring out whether Democrats will retake the majority this fall. 

On paper, a majority might look firmly in reach for…

Candidate Conversation - Mike Kennedy (R)

June 1, 2018 · 2:25 PM EDT

Utah Senate — Rating: Solid Republican 

Interview Date: May 2, 2018

Date of Birth: Feb. 2, 1969; Lansing, Mich. 

Education: BYU (1994); Michigan State medical school (1998); BYU Law School (2007)

Elected Office: State Rep. (2012-present) 

Current Outlook: It’s going to be difficult for anyone other than Mitt Romney to…

Why You Should Focus on Independents

by Stuart Rothenberg June 1, 2018 · 8:53 AM EDT

I don’t trust anyone who tells me they already know the makeup of the midterm electorate. We can’t possibly know who will vote in the fall, let alone how they will cast their ballots.

If I were going to focus on a handful of variables to understand how the cycle…

Ohio Primaries: Republicans Choose Brown Challenger

May 9, 2018 · 12:21 AM EDT

Senate. Sherrod Brown (D) elected 2006 (56%), 2012 (51%). Rep. Jim Renacci won the GOP nomination in the least suspenseful Senate primary of the night, defeating investment banker Mike Gibbons 47-32 percent. Renacci was also the only GOP congressman to be victorious in a Senate primary last night, as West…

West Virginia Primaries: Morrisey to take on Manchin for Senate

May 9, 2018 · 12:16 AM EDT

Senate. Joe Manchin (D) elected 2010 special (53%), 2012 (61%). Former coal company CEO Don Blankenship, who served a year in prison, enjoyed a few days in the national spotlight as a serious contender for the GOP nomination. But state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey prevailed with 35 percent over Rep.…

GOP Senate Targets Fade From View

by Stuart Rothenberg May 8, 2018 · 8:30 AM EDT

When this election cycle began, handicappers repeatedly pointed out that 10 Democratic Senate incumbents from states carried by Donald Trump would be on the ballot in 2018. That count was accurate, and the point behind it obvious — Republicans had a long list of opportunities.

But now even the most…

Tennessee Senate: Why I’m Cautious About Phil Bredesen’s Prospects

by Stuart Rothenberg April 30, 2018 · 9:10 AM EDT

Two early surveys show former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, holding a lead over Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn in hypothetical ballot tests of this year’s Senate race.

Those polls, along with kind words about Bredesen from retiring Tennessee GOP Sen. Bob Corker, have raised the contest’s profile and heightened…

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Hair in Montana Ads, Let’s Remember Candidates from Kentucky

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 28, 2018 · 10:30 AM EDT

Arizona’s 8th District Special (a): The House majority was in play before the special election and it’s in play after the special election (and more thoughts in the aftermath of the race).

Arizona’s 8th District Special (b): Two months ago, we changed our rating from Solid Republican to…

Nebraska Senate: How Vulnerable is Deb Fischer?

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 27, 2018 · 2:45 PM EDT

Nebraska has been dubbed a “sleeper” Senate race and rated as competitive by some handicappers. House Democrats just came close to winning a special election in a congressional district President Donald Trump won by 21 points, so how vulnerable is GOP Sen. Deb Fischer?

At a minimum, the senator…

Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.

by Stuart Rothenberg April 23, 2018 · 12:44 PM EDT

New national polls show voters are more upbeat about President Donald Trump’s performance and more pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House. Or not.

An April 8-11 Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Trump’s job approval rating at 40 percent, while 56 percent disapproved of his performance.

An…