Senate News & Analysis

Brett Kavanaugh and the Midterm Effect

by Stuart Rothenberg July 16, 2018 · 9:20 AM EDT

The selection of Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court will have less of an impact on November’s midterms than you think. Sure, depending how the confirmation process develops, it’s possible the nomination could affect a handful of races, but the most likely scenario will not change the overall trajectory of…

2018 Senate Overview: SCOTUS Shake-up

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 6, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement and successor have the potential to alter the balance of the Supreme Court for years, but it’s less clear whether his decision will fundamentally change the fight for the Senate majority in November.

At a minimum, the Supreme Court vacancy reinforces the importance of the Senate…

Senate Overview (July 6, 2018): Arizona - Maine

July 6, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

ARIZONA. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. Aug. 28 primary. This is one of the only competitive Senate races where the general election matchup isn’t set yet. Rep. Martha McSally, former state Sen. Kelli Ward (who challenged John McCain in the 2016 primary), and former Maricopa County Sheriff…

Senate Overview (July 6, 2018): Maryland - Ohio

July 6, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

MARYLAND. Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%). The Old Line State saw some anti-establishment energy in the June 26 primaries when Ben Jealous captured the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, but the senator cruised to victory, 81-6 percent, over former Army spy Chelsea Manning. GOP activist Tony Campbell won the…

Senate Overview (July 6, 2018): Pennsylvania - Wyoming

July 6, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

PENNSYLVANIA. Bob Casey Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%). Trump won the state narrowly in 2016, but Casey isn’t acting particularly vulnerable and the race is on the outskirts of the discussion about the fight for the majority. Rep. Lou Barletta defeated state Rep. Jim Christiana 63-37 percent in…

Winter has Come for the Democratic Party

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 6, 2018 · 2:26 PM EDT

You can explain away 10-term Rep. Joe Crowley’s loss in the Democratic primary to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by pointing to demographic changes in the district or campaign missteps by the incumbent, but that obscures a larger trend. Similar to the dynamic in the Republican Party, the power of the Democratic establishment…

Candidate Conversation - Richard Painter (DFL)

July 6, 2018 · 2:24 PM EDT

Minnesota Senate - Rating: Likely Democratic

Interview Date: May 22, 2018

Date of Birth: Oct. 3, 1961 (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) 

Education: Harvard (1984); Yale (1987)

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: Painter is the underdog against Sen. Tina Smith in the Aug. 14 Democratic primary. Smith was appointed…

The Wrong Fight at the Wrong Time for the GOP

by Stuart Rothenberg June 29, 2018 · 11:34 AM EDT

You need to hand it to President Donald Trump, his entire administration and his party. It takes more than a little chutzpah to act in a way that seems callous to the concerns of children. First, it was gun control. Now it is immigration in general, and separating children from…

10 One-Liners after Tuesday’s Primaries

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 27, 2018 · 2:18 AM EDT

There’s plenty to digest from Tuesday’s primaries in New York, Maryland, Utah and beyond, but here are a few initial thoughts encapsulated in some run-on sentences.

Crowley’s loss. North Carolina Rep. Robert Pittenger’s primary loss last month wasn’t a surprise (considering his narrow win in 2016), and South Carolina…

GOP Poll: Donnelly in Position to Win in Indiana

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 15, 2018 · 10:25 AM EDT

After defeating a flawed candidate in 2012 and President Donald Trump winning Indiana in 2016 by nearly 20 points, Sen. Joe Donnelly is widely regarded as one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators in the country. But don’t count him out yet, according to a new Republican poll.

Former state…