Senate News & Analysis

2024 Senate Overview: GOP Needs Better, Not Perfect

February 9, 2024 · 2:30 PM EST

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Even though they haven’t avoided primaries and are running into battle with untested candidates, Republicans are still well-positioned to win control of the Senate in 2024. 

Republicans have a long history of nominating candidates who lose winnable races, from Sharron Angle, Christine O’Donnell,…

2024 Senate Overview (Feb. 9, 2024): Arizona - Maine

February 9, 2024 · 2:29 PM EST

Arizona. Kyrsten Sinema (I) elected 2018 as a Democrat (50%). Filing deadline April 8. Primary Aug. 6. It won’t be official until the filing deadline, but it seems less and less likely that Sinema wages a re-election bid as an independent — The Arizona Republic detailed the challenge Sinema will…

2024 Senate Overview (Feb. 9, 2024): Maryland - Ohio

February 9, 2024 · 2:28 PM EST

Maryland. Open; Ben Cardin (D) not seeking re-election. Primary April 23. This race received a major shakeup with the news that former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan will run. Hogan is the only Republican who could conceivably make this race competitive, since he exited office in 2022 very popular. But he…

2024 Senate Overview (Feb. 9, 2024): Pennsylvania - Wyoming

February 9, 2024 · 2:27 PM EST

Pennsylvania. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) elected 2006 (59%), 2012 (54%), 2018 (56%). Filing deadline February 20. Primary April 23. Republicans effectively cleared the field for former Bridgewater hedge fund CEO David McCormick, who narrowly lost the 2022 GOP primary for the state’s other Senate seat. (Brandi Tomasetti, the secretary and…

Podcast Episode 15: California Senate and House Primaries with Melanie Mason of Politico

February 1, 2024 · 6:11 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Melanie Mason of Politico discuss the upcoming California primaries including the race to replace Dianne Feinstein in the Senate and more than a dozen consequential and interesting House primaries. And Nathan contemplates buying a track suit fashioned after a G.I. Joe character.


California Senate: Only the Top Two Survive

by Jacob Rubashkin January 26, 2024 · 2:29 PM EST

One of the most hard-fought and expensive Senate races this cycle has absolutely nothing to do with who controls the majority in the upper chamber.

The race to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein in California features three sitting members of Congress, a former MLB all-star, a half-dozen media markets…

Michigan Senate: Primary Focus

by Jacob Rubashkin January 26, 2024 · 2:29 PM EST

Longtime Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s decision not to seek a fifth term makes Michigan an intriguing pickup opportunity for Senate Republicans this fall, albeit one that is not nearly as ripe as the party’s top priorities.

Despite success at most other levels of electoral politics, Michigan Republicans have struggled to…

Podcast Episode 14: Iowa Caucus Results, Delegate Counting w/ Leah Askarinam

January 18, 2024 · 11:34 AM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Leah Askarinam of 538 and the Associated Press discuss the Iowa caucus results and the intricacies of counting delegates in the presidential nominating process.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential…

Senate Report Shorts (Jan. 11, 2024)

January 11, 2024 · 2:28 PM EST

California Senate. Less than two months before the March 5 primary, the TV ad war is heating up. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter has spent or reserved $2 million on ads compared to $1.77 million for Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and $89,000 from Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee, according to AdImpact. But…

Podcast Episode 13: New York 3 Special, Iowa Caucus w/ Marianne LeVine

January 5, 2024 · 9:17 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Marianne LeVine of the Washington Post discuss the special election to replace George Santos in New York’s 3rd District and the upcoming Republican caucuses in Iowa, with a side of movie reviews. 

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts…