Senate News & Analysis

DSCC Buying Time in Connecticut Senate Race

by Stuart Rothenberg September 30, 2010 · 1:14 PM EDT

With polls showing the race tightening and Democratic Senate nominee Richard Blumenthal slipping to or under the 50% mark in his contest against Linda McMahon (R), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is buying time in Connecticut, according to a reliable political source.

Democrats once hoped that Attorney General…

Parties’ Opposition Research Efforts Fuel Late Ads

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 30, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

As voters are being bombarded with political attack ads in the lead-up to November, few likely realize that what appears as a fine-print citation in a 30-second television commercial is the result of months of opposition research and an orchestrated communication effort by parties and candidates.

In a…

Final Stretch Not as Important as You Think

by Stuart Rothenberg September 29, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

You’d never know it from the avalanche of TV ads, direct-mail pieces and phone calls that voters will receive in October, but most campaigns have only another week or two to change the likely outcome of their contests.

Sure, the midterm elections are still five weeks away, but…

Kentucky Senate Bluegrass Poll: Another Interpretation

by Stuart Rothenberg September 27, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

When asked about the new Bluegrass Poll, which showed Republican Rand Paul’s lead shrinking from 15 points in an early September survey to a mere two points in a new survey, SurveyUSA pollster Jay Leve commented, “Whether that is a result of genuine traction for (Conway), second thoughts about…

2010 Senate Overview (September 24, 2010)

September 24, 2010 · 5:20 PM EDT

The road to a gain of at least six Senate seats got a little bit easier for Republicans this week as multiple surveys show Wisconsin moving in the Republicans’ direction. In general, the Midwest is looking like a big, big problem for Democrats up and down the ballot. There…

State Waves Add to Democrats’ National Woes

by Stuart Rothenberg September 24, 2010 · 9:21 AM EDT

Everyone agrees a political wave will hit on Nov. 2, though Democrats and Republicans disagree on the size of it. Some see a “normal” political wave, while others expect a political tsunami.

Obviously, with reapportionment and redistricting on the schedule for 2011 and 2012, a huge Republican victory…

Handicapper Headache: What About Alaska?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 22, 2010 · 10:05 AM EDT

Can Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who was denied renomination by Alaska Republicans, win as a write-in candidate in November? Obviously, it’s a long shot, as is any write-in campaign, but is it impossible?

I start off skeptical, but I’m not sure.

For anyone who doesn’t know about Alaska…

Is This an Anti-Incumbent Year? Not So Far

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 21, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

Countless stories and hours of cable television have been filled with analysis describing this year’s elections as tantamount to an anti-incumbent wave.

But as the primaries come to a close, it’s clear that instead of throwing the bums out, voters have let the vast majority of incumbents move…

2010 Senate Overview (September 17, 2010)

September 17, 2010 · 4:30 PM EDT

The GOP primary upset in Delaware obviously impacts Republican efforts to gain ten seats and win control of the Senate. But Republicans remain headed for major Senate gains, and GOP prospects in at least two states thought to be extremely competitive, Florida and Ohio, appear improved over the past…

Delaware Proves Sometimes a Win Isn’t a Win

by Stuart Rothenberg September 17, 2010 · 10:00 AM EDT

The pattern is a familiar one.

Purist conservative challengers in GOP primaries start out as asterisks in early polls, but in the final week or two, they surge to victory, as national tea party groups pump money and energy into low-turnout primaries.

For the most part, these…