So what happened this election cycle? As voters across the country head to the polls today, here are a few thoughts.
• Democrats never succeeded in changing the trajectory of the election cycle that developed roughly midway through last year.
Once voters decided President Barack Obama and…
The latest public polls in Washington confirm that the race between Sen. Patty Murray (D) and GOP nominee Dino Rossi is virtually even. It looked like Murray had a narrow advantage as recently as late last week but that edge appears to have evaporated. With the expected close result…
Even after losing the GOP primary, Sen. Lisa Murkowski appears to have the advantage in the race. But if there are complications with her write-in candidacy, there is a narrow chance that Democrat Scott McAdams could win the seat.
McAdams wouldn’t have a shot in a two-way race,…
Republicans who are privately hopeful that the party can beat conventional wisdom on Tuesday and net the 10 seats needed to take the Senate majority might want to talk to Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker.
The first-term Republican isn’t vulnerable; he isn’t even up for re-election for another two…
Republicans are still poised to gain 6-8 seats, though a huge GOP wave could yield one or two more. On the other hand, with a few breaks, Democrats could keep their losses down to 4 or 5 seats, which they’d no doubt argue was a moral victory. Significant Republican…
Reporters like to talk about “surges,” but at this point in the cycle most race changes are small unless some dramatic event causes voters to reassess their assumptions. Democrats seem to have improved their position a bit in Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Wisconsin, but the changes aren’t all that dramatic.…
As Christianity and homosexuality exploded as big issues in the Kentucky and Colorado Senate races, I can only think back to a column I wrote for this space only a little more than a year ago (“In Virginia, Culture War Looks Very Much Alive on One Side,” Sept. 24,…
While House Republicans are poised to make huge gains, the Senate is proving to be a tougher climb for the GOP. Democrats currently have only three seats that are definitely lost – North Dakota, Arkansas and Indiana – though a handful of others look either difficult or completely up…
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has become a very polarizing group — within the Democratic Party.
While some Democrats this week seized on a study, initiated by the liberal blog Think Progress, that alleged the Chamber of Commerce is using foreign money for its political efforts, others were…
This week, we’re moving the Ohio and Missouri Senate races further toward the GOP, but that change doesn’t alter our overall estimate in the Senate. While there are enough Democratic-held states are “in play” to give the GOP a small chance of netting the 10 seats it needs to…
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