Democrats believe that they have stopped the bleeding, and they believe that they see signs of a recovery. But even they don’t know whether it’s a “dead cat bounce” or a real strengthening of Democratic numbers district by district.
With the national numbers holding, the DCCC pulling some early…
As Democrats get ready to take their lumps in federal races, the outlook in governorships is no better. Races in California, Oregon, New Mexico, and Maine that looked like great Democratic opportunities earlier in the cycle now appear to be heading toward the Republicans. Democrats are still…
The pattern is a familiar one.
Purist conservative challengers in GOP primaries start out as asterisks in early polls, but in the final week or two, they surge to victory, as national tea party groups pump money and energy into low-turnout primaries.
For the most part, these primary outcomes…
After a battery of recent public polls showed Gov. Ted Strickland (D) slipping in his bid for re-election, the Democratic incumbent released his own poll that shows he’s not dead yet.
Former Cong. John Kasich (R) led Strickland 48%-45% in large sample of 1,200 likely voters conducted September…
Like most of you, I’m a huge consumer of polls. I rely on survey data, because they represent one of the few quantitative measures of candidate strength. Or do they?
For years, I have complained about national and local news anchors who don’t seem to understand what polls mean and what a margin…
Christine O’Donnell’s upset over Cong Mike Castle in the GOP primary dramatically alters Republican prospects for November in Delaware. Castle had broad appeal, including to independents and even Democratic voters, while O’Donnell’s appeal is limited to tea party conservatives. Lacking an…
While serious Democratic observers worry whether their party can somehow hang on to 218 seats in the House, more than a few Republican strategists and neutral observers have become convinced that the GOP is on the cusp of a stunning victory that could at least equal the party’s 52-seat 1994 gain.…
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