Archive

New Iowa Caucuses GOP Poll: Both Accurate and Meaningless

by Stuart Rothenberg August 16, 2010 · 3:17 PM EDT

Can a poll be both correct and totally, utterly meaningless? Absolutely, and the new TheIowaRepublican.com/Concordia Group LLC survey conducted by Voter Consumer Research is a great example.

GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen’s firm is one of those survey research firms that is widely trusted by…

Ohio 16: Suicide Squeeze

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 13, 2010 · 4:01 PM EDT

Two years ago, John Boccieri was a Democratic superstar, a top recruit, a fresh-faced state legislator with a military record who, by this time last cycle, was on his way to taking over an open seat that had been in Republican hands for three decades. Today, he’s in grave danger of losing…

Wisconsin Senate: Declaration of Independence

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 13, 2010 · 4:00 PM EDT

Wisconsin’s Russ Feingold (D) is one of the Senate’s long-standing mavericks, but after 18 years, Republicans think the brand is wearing thin.

Feingold’s vulnerability is evidence of a dramatically shifting landscape. At the beginning of the cycle, the Democratic senator wasn’t close to being…

Smoot’s Charge: Hold at Least 50 Senate Seats

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 12, 2010 · 10:01 AM EDT

Last in a series of profiles of committee independent expenditure directors.

Democratic operative Brian Smoot has been in tough spots before, but preserving the Democratic majority in the Senate this fall tops the list.

As director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s independent…

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

by Stuart Rothenberg August 10, 2010 · 9:56 AM EDT

Competitive open seats usually follow the direction of the overall cycle, so with House Republicans poised for large gains, it should be no surprise that most of the open seats that flip will be headed their way. The districts at the top of the list are more likely to flip, with at least the…

Ratings Changes in WV, FL, NV, & WI Senate races

August 9, 2010 · 2:47 PM EDT

West Virginia (Open; Goodwin, D) -- Add as Democrat Favored

Senator Robert Byrd’s death has created a special election to fill the remaining two years of his term. Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin is likely to win his party’s nomination in the August 28 primary, while businessman/former state GOP…

Jersey Native Looks to Shore up GOP Senate Majority

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 6, 2010 · 12:47 PM EDT

Third in a series of profiles of committee independent expenditure directors.

“If it wasn’t for Mike DuHaime, I wouldn’t be a Senator today,” New Jersey state Sen. Anthony Bucco (R) recalled recently about a campaign that took place almost 13 years ago.

After this year’s elections, more than…

Kentucky Senate: Paul Campaign clear about bio in Report interview

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 5, 2010 · 12:30 PM EDT

If reporters wanted to know whether Kentucky GOP Senate nominee Rand Paul graduated from Baylor University, they probably should have asked his campaign. That’s what I did, and I got the answer, ten months ago.

Wednesday’s story in the Lexington Herald-Leader “Contrary to some media reports,…

Even Veteran Members Will Struggle to Win

by Stuart Rothenberg August 4, 2010 · 8:58 AM EDT

Reps. Chet Edwards (D-Texas), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) and John Spratt (D-S.C.) need to keep in mind the fate of former Reps. Jim Leach (R-Iowa) and Sue Kelly (R-N.Y.).

Kelly, first elected in 1994, had only one tough race (in 1996) before she was upset in 2006. In the two elections…