Midterms Spell Trouble, But ‘Itch’ Theory Is A Real Head-Scratcher

by Stuart Rothenberg September 15, 2005 · 9:24 PM EDT

Over the next year, as we move toward the 2006 elections, we are likely to hear more and more talk of the so-called six-year itch – the historical “trend” that has meant big losses for the president’s party six years into his presidency.

That’s a pity, since the six-year itch is little more…

Beware the Words ‘I’m From the Media, And I’m Here to Help’

by Stuart Rothenberg September 12, 2005 · 9:27 PM EDT

I have lots of friends in the national media, and I value their intelligence, dedication and integrity, as well as the important stories that they’ve broken. But I’ve had it with the way the media as a whole – and television in particular – has handled the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Too many…

Candidates Look for Way to Move Voters in Va., N.J. Gov. Races

by Stuart Rothenberg September 8, 2005 · 9:30 PM EDT

If you don’t live in Virginia or New Jersey, chances are you don’t know that those two states have gubernatorial elections coming up in just two months.

Come to think of it, even if you do live in those states, you might not be paying particularly close attention to the races. Voters in both…

Learning the Wrong Lessons From Ohio 2nd?

by Stuart Rothenberg September 1, 2005 · 9:34 PM EDT

My dictionary defines “hubris” as “overweening pride or self-confidence” and “arrogance.”

Usually, those accused of hubris have been successful – so successful that they inflate their own importance and ability. But some Democratic activists, notably too many armchair political strategists on…

Empire State ‘Politics’ From Pirro and Pataki to Cooperstown

by Stuart Rothenberg August 30, 2005 · 9:38 PM EDT

While New York state may be the nation’s financial and media center, it hasn’t exactly been a breeding ground for competitive and interesting elections. Even with the GOP’s solid control of the state Senate and its ownership of the governor’s mansion for more than a decade, Democrats have the…

Colorado 7: Return of the Swing District

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 28, 2005 · 11:51 PM EDT

Since its inception following the 2000 census, Colorado’s 7th District has remained atop both parties list of competitive districts. Republican Bob Beauprez won the inaugural race by the slimmest of margins in one of the most competitive and even races in the country, and he held it again in…

Arizona Senate: Developing a Target

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 28, 2005 · 11:49 PM EDT

Down six seats in the Senate, Democratic party strategists are looking to expand the playing field in their attempt to inch closer to regaining the majority. So, after giving Sen. Jon Kyl (R) a pass six years ago, Arizona and national Democrats are setting their sights on the two-term Republican…

Nebraska Senate: Falling from the Top Tier

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 2, 2005 · 12:24 AM EDT

Republicans are looking high and low for opportunities to expand their majority in the Senate. Sen. Ben Nelson (D) is an attractive target on paper – an incumbent Democratic senator in a state President Bush won by 33 points last November.

But races aren’t won “on paper,” and President Bush and…

Florida 22: Perennial Target

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 2, 2005 · 12:19 AM EDT

Every cycle, Democrats unveil their strategy to defeat Cong. Clay Shaw (R). And each cycle, the Democratic nominee is turned away. This time, Democrats hope things will be different.

Elaine Bloom (D) came very close to defeating the incumbent back in 2000. But since then, the 22nd District was…

Iowa 3: Da Race for Des Moines

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 17, 2005 · 1:45 AM EDT

Cong. Leonard Boswell (D) is just starting to settle into his new 3rd District seat. But he can’t get too comfortable just yet. After winning reelection in a redistricted seat in 2002, Boswell widened his margin in 2004, defeating GOP attorney Stan Thompson a second straight time.