Rothenberg’s 2006 Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

by Stuart Rothenberg January 25, 2006 · 4:06 PM EST

For the past few election cycles, I have followed the most vulnerable House open seats as a way of monitoring the two parties’ overall prospects for November. This cycle, there are relatively few inherently competitive open seats. But some open seats that would normally be reliably Republican…

Lott’s Decision Leaves Democrats Little Room

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 24, 2006 · 9:03 PM EST

Republican Sen. Trent Lott’s announcement this week that he will seek a fourth term in Mississippi leaves Democrats with little room for error if they are to have any chance of capturing the Senate in November. ‘

Party strategists on both sides of the aisle agreed that Democrats would have no…

Eh? Are Republicans as Tone Deaf as They Appear?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 21, 2006 · 10:03 AM EST

Sometimes, politics involves Machiavellian manipulation and elaborate scenarios based on risky judgments and hard-to-decipher bits of information. Other times, it’s so patently obvious what to do that it’s hard to understand why politicians choose an alternative route.

Presented with a rare…

Why Kaine Should Refuse Democratic Response

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 19, 2006 · 1:30 PM EST

National Democratic leaders are looking to newly-elected Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia to deliver their party’s response to President Bush’s State of the Union speech at the end of the month. But if Kaine wants to help himself, he should take this tremendous opportunity…and decline the invitation.

Will Veterans Make the Best House Candidates in ’06?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 11, 2006 · 9:14 AM EST

For months, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, liberal Web logs and major media outlets have been trumpeting the large class of Democratic House candidates who are veterans of the military.

More than three dozen non-incumbent veterans are running for Congress this year, all but a…

California 50th Special: A Mixed Blessing for the Democrats

by Stuart Rothenberg December 22, 2005 · 2:59 PM EST

April’s special election open primary in California’s 50th district, and the likely June runoff, give Democrats a terrific opportunity to demonstrate that an electoral wave is building, and that a return to power in one or both houses of Congress is possible in November.

If Democrat Francine…

For Republicans, Internal Changes Are in the Air

by Stuart Rothenberg December 19, 2005 · 1:07 AM EST

It was only a little more than one year ago thatRepublicans were united — united behind President Bush, united in their support for tax cuts and united in their fervor to defeat Democrats at the polls.

As 2005 draws to a close, Republicans are fighting among themselves over spending and…

New Print Edition: CA50 Special

December 16, 2005 · 3:26 PM EST

The new December 16, 2005 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.) Here is a sample from the current issue.

California 50: Special Election Pre-Test
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Democrats are longing for the opportunity to run…

MD Senate: Steele Memo Cites Dead Heat Poll

by Stuart Rothenberg December 15, 2005 · 10:34 AM EST

The campaign of Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) is circulating a memo to supporters that asserts that a “recent poll of 600 likely Maryland voters,” shows Steele and Representative Ben Cardin (D) deadlocked at 46%, while Steele holds a narrow 48%-44% lead over former Representative Kweisi Mfume (D)…

It’s That Time Again: Stu Picks His Winners, Losers of 2005

by Stuart Rothenberg December 15, 2005 · 7:55 AM EST

The end of the year is always a time to assess politics and politicians, which is simply another way of saying it’s time for another “winners and losers” column. Don’t get too excited if your guys won this year, though. Everything could change in 2006. The same goes for those who lost. Remember,…