McCain’s ’08 Dilemma: Can He Recapture the Magic He Once Had?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 28, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

Here’s a bit of unsolicited advice for Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign (which has plenty of smart people and doesn’t need my advice): Try to get back to McCain’s story.

It isn’t news that McCain’s campaign is staggering under the weight of weaker-than- expected fundraising and poll…

House Retirement Watch: If You Wait, They Will Come

by Stuart Rothenberg June 25, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

It seems as if every election cycle around this time I start thinking, “Where are all the retirements?” It’s mid-June, six months into the 2008 cycle, and there are only a handful of open House seats.

But is it so unusual that we now have only four House Members — Democrats Luis Gutierrez…

New Print Edition: Missouri 6 & Texas 22

June 22, 2007 · 3:12 PM EDT

The new June 22, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and…

DSCC Could Hit Recruiting Mother Lode

June 22, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

While Democratic strategists have not yet started to count their chickens, there is increasing evidence that two key Democrat Senate recruits are moving toward ’08 Senate races.

Former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, who narrowly lost a 2002 Senate race against Republican John Sununu, has…

Handicapping Versus Reporting, Analyzing the Presidential Race

by Stuart Rothenberg June 21, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

As I’ve watched the first few months of the 2008 presidential race, I’ve been struck by how differently the race can be watched and evaluated.

Most print and television political reporters, along with their editors, are approaching the contests for the Democratic and Republican presidential…

2008 Senate Ratings

June 20, 2007 · 4:08 PM EDT

Here are our latest Senate ratings, including the developments in Wyoming. At this point in the cycle, we only use three broad categories. Later, we will move to our more specific categories such as Clear Advantage, Narrow Advantage, Toss-Up, etc.

  • Coleman (R-MN)

For Some Democrats, the Political Picture Doesn’t Look So Rosy

by Stuart Rothenberg June 18, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. — While Democratic politicians and activists around the country are upbeat about the party’s near-term political prospects, including the 2008 presidential and Congressional elections, Democrats in Michigan are increasingly concerned about their standing in the state. Some…

2007-08 Gubernatorial Ratings

June 15, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings. We have moved to our pre-election categories. Democrats currently hold 28 governorships compared to 22 for the Republicans. 2007 races are in italics.

  • Open; Blanco (D)
  • Fletcher, (R-KY)
TOSS-UP (1 R, 0 D)

Iowa Straw Poll: Over Long Before It Really Began

by Stuart Rothenberg June 14, 2007 · 12:05 AM EDT

Less than a month ago in this space, I observed that the fast-approaching Iowa straw poll in Ames on Aug. 11 could offer some interesting insights into the Republican race for president. To quote Emily Litela (Gilda Radner) of “Saturday Night Live” fame, “Never mind.”

The recent announcement by…

Illinois 8: Greenberg to Challenge Bean

June 13, 2007 · 12:01 AM EDT

Wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg (R) is set to announce his candidacy against Cong. Melissa Bean (D) in Illinois’s 8th District.

GOP insiders believe the 8th District is one of their top ten opportunities in the country, particularly since Bean won reelection last year with 51% in the Democratic…