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Post-CNN Debate Thoughts

by Stuart Rothenberg September 18, 2015 · 10:12 AM EDT

Given there are still four and one-half months until the Iowa caucuses, why would any Iowa Republican make a final decision right now about which candidate he or she will support?

Yet that didn’t stop CNN from treating Wednesday night’s GOP debate at the Reagan Library as the Super Bowl, with a…

And the News Gets Worse for Clinton

by Stuart Rothenberg September 17, 2015 · 10:08 AM EDT

Compared to the Republican race for president, the Democratic contest looks almost normal.

Yes, Hillary Rodham Clinton’s poll numbers have plummeted so far and so fast that she trails an avowed socialist in Iowa and New Hampshire polls, and she looks so damaged that Vice President Joseph R. Biden…

No Rating Change After Benishek’s Retirement in Michigan

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 16, 2015 · 9:05 AM EDT

Democrats need Republican incumbents to retire from competitive districts in order to expand the playing field of competitive House races. But GOP Rep. Dan Benishek’s decision not to run for re-election in Michigan barely moves the status quo of the House battlefield.

Benishek was already…

More House Retirements Likely to Come

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 14, 2015 · 10:00 AM EDT

After spending five weeks at home in their districts with their families, how many members got homesick and are set to retire?

If history is a guide, at least a handful or more House members will announce their departure in the days, weeks and months ahead.

Earlier this month, GOP Rep. John Kline…

A Significant Reassessment of the GOP Race

by Stuart Rothenberg September 10, 2015 · 12:48 PM EDT

Republican front-runner Donald Trump isn’t going away anytime soon, I now believe.

That assessment doesn’t mean I think Trump is the favorite for the Iowa caucuses or the GOP nomination, but it does reflect a fundamental shift in my thinking. I have believed and been arguing that once Iowa…

Wisconsin Senate: Badger State Battle, Part 2

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 4, 2015 · 2:30 PM EDT

We’ve seen this movie before, where Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Russ Feingold battle for a Senate seat in Wisconsin. But Democrats are hoping next year’s sequel has an alternate ending.

The 2010 cycle was historic for Republicans as they roared back into the House majority and gained six…

Colorado 6: Can Carroll Cause Coffman to Stumble?

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 4, 2015 · 2:29 PM EDT

Targeting Rep. Mike Coffman has become a biennial tradition for Democrats. But even though Colorado’s 6th District is one of the country’s premiere swing seats, Democrats have had trouble finding the right combination of candidate and election cycle to defeat the GOP congressman. 

Earlier this…

Report Shorts (Minnesota 2, North Dakota Governor Senate, Washington 8 Governor

September 4, 2015 · 2:28 PM EDT

Minnesota’s 2nd District. GOP Rep. John Kline announced his retirement on Thursday, leaving open a competitive district that President Barack Obama won narrowly, 49.1 percent to 49 percent, in 2012. Democrats had two credible challengers in the race already, but it will take some time as potential…

2016 House Ratings (September 3, 2015)

September 3, 2015 · 2:59 PM EDT

Reichert Seriously Considering Washington Governor’s Race

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 3, 2015 · 1:02 PM EDT

Republican Rep. Dave Reichert is seriously considering a gubernatorial bid in Washington state, according to multiple GOP sources.

The congressman has been the consistent source of rumors for a statewide bid over the past decade. But those rumors were often fueled by House Democrats who wanted him…