Inside Elections

2016 House Ratings (February 19, 2016)

February 19, 2016 · 2:55 PM EST

2016 Senate Ratings (February 19, 2016)

February 19, 2016 · 2:54 PM EST

Who Will Win South Carolina Saturday? Just Look at the Voters

by Stuart Rothenberg February 19, 2016 · 12:26 PM EST

What will South Carolina Republican presidential primary voters do when they go to the polls on Saturday? The best way to approach that question is to compare the Palmetto State’s GOP primary voters to those who turned out this month for the first two Republican contests.

By most measures, South…

Michael Bloomberg’s Road Map to the White House

by Stuart Rothenberg February 17, 2016 · 11:31 AM EST

You are the eighth-richest person in America with a net worth of more than $38 billion, according to Forbes magazine. You served three terms as mayor of New York. You’ve been a Democrat, a Republican and an independent. And you believe that the country has suffered from political polarization and…

Trying to Make Sense of the Post-New Hampshire Republican Race

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 10, 2016 · 2:20 PM EST

If there were any doubts that Donald Trump was a serious contender in the Republican presidential race after he arguably under-performed in Iowa, New Hampshire’s results should be a wake-up call.

While one victory in the Granite State certainly doesn’t guarantee Trump the nomination, his…

Voters Don’t Fit Neatly Into Presidential Primary Lanes

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 9, 2016 · 4:59 PM EST

The common narrative of the Republican presidential primary has two groups of candidates jockeying for position in establishment and anti-establishment lanes.

Under these parameters, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would stand to be the primary, if not sole, beneficiary from Donald Trump’s departure, whether…

Can Rubio Follow Romney’s Path to the Nomination?

by Stuart Rothenberg February 9, 2016 · 12:30 PM EST

Is Marco Rubio a conservative who wants to overthrow the GOP establishment or a potential standard-bearer for party pragmatists?  He’s trying to be both, of course.

That strategy has been tried before – by Mitt Romney. And it worked, sort of. The question now, after Rubio’s debate performance on…

What Happened to Jeb Bush?

by Stuart Rothenberg February 9, 2016 · 9:08 AM EST

It must be more than a decade ago when I got a glimpse of the man often referred to as “George W. Bush’s smarter, younger brother.”

Charlie Cook and I were scheduled to speak to a group of Florida business leaders during lunch, but before we began our shtick, the state’s sitting governor, Jeb…

Why Was Fiorina Denied Ad Time During the Debate?

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 8, 2016 · 9:00 AM EST

Carly Fiorina didn’t make Saturday night’s Republican presidential debate in New Hampshire because she didn’t meet ABC’s polling threshold. But the network appeared to add insult to injury by not allowing her campaign to air television ads during the debate either. At least that’s what her campaign…

Wisconsin Senate: Argument over Assumptions

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 5, 2016 · 2:00 PM EST

Marquette University Law School recently released a poll which showed GOP Sen. Ron Johnson losing to former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold by 13 points in Wisconsin. Johnson’s allies called the poll “bogus” and claim that the race is tied. So who’s right?

The fight over the narrative in Wisconsin…