House News & Analysis

Past and Precedent: What Makes This Mississippi Special Election Interesting

by Stuart Rothenberg February 19, 2015 · 10:37 AM EST

You might think the best way to understand Mississippi’s upcoming 1st District special election to fill the late Rep. Alan Nunnelee’s seat is to examine the 2008 special election in the same district. After all, that previous special election to fill the seat left open by Roger Wicker’s…

Why Early Senate Polling Is Usually Useless

by Stuart Rothenberg February 13, 2015 · 1:20 PM EST

I never pay too much attention to early polls, since snapshots of a race more than 18 months before Election Day can be misleading.

And political parties ought to be careful about crowing too loudly about early polls for fear someone will look too closely into them.

A Feb.…

Why Special Elections Really Matter

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 12, 2015 · 9:43 AM EST

Special elections matter, but not for the reasons you might think.

It’s an annual sport in politics: arguing whether special elections serve as bellwethers. But while special elections often poorly portend results around the country, they can produce potential leaders. They’re also excellent predictors of voter behavior inside that…

Democrats Might Need to Lose the White House to Win the House Majority

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 9, 2015 · 9:40 AM EST

“It’s going to be awhile,” wrote The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza recently, summarizing Democrats’ chances of obtaining a majority in the House.

But Democrats may not need years to dig out from their minority hole … if they are willing to surrender the White House in 2016.

Cillizza,…

Democrats Gamble With New York Special Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 6, 2015 · 1:58 PM EST

Democrats have all but ceded the upcoming special election in New York’s 11th District to Republicans. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee remains determined to challenge for the seat in November 2016 when party operatives expect a boost from presidential year turnout.

But history is not on their side.

When Activists Run for Office

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 5, 2015 · 10:03 AM EST

Spending time, energy and money on campaigns is one thing. But some political activists go a step further, contemplating whether to become a candidate themselves.

California could see two such cases in the next few years, with environmentalist Tom Steyer and Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas potentially finding themselves…

Democrats Looking Beyond New York 11 Special Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 28, 2015 · 10:51 AM EST

The date hasn’t even been set, but Republicans have all but won the special election in New York’s 11th District.

The Staten Island-based district has swung from being a top Democratic target in the midterms all the way across the competitive spectrum to Democrats punting the opportunity to win…

Pennsylvania 8: Democrats Looking Forward to Open Seat

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 23, 2015 · 1:32 PM EST

Politicians get criticized for violating vows of term limits, but GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick is sticking to his pledge, even if it costs his party a seat. 

Not long ago, Democrat Patrick Murphy held Pennsylvania’s 8th District, but that was before Republicans redrew the district to be more Republican…

When a House Member Should Retire

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 20, 2015 · 9:00 AM EST

If you’re a member of Congress thinking about retiring, you might want to spend some time listening to Kenny Rogers.

“You gotta know when to hold’em. Know when to fold’em. Know when to walk away. Know when to run,” sang the country music legend in his 1978 song,…

Why Democrats Can’t Count on Voters Blaming a ‘Republican Congress’

by Stuart Rothenberg January 19, 2015 · 9:30 AM EST

Most emails I receive are fundraising propaganda easily ignored, since they aren’t strong on accuracy or thoughtfulness. Instead, they merely seek to incite and anger — and to get people to open their checkbooks to stop the forces of evil.

But the Monday email I received from the Progressive…