New Mexico 2: New Democratic Poll Shows Tight Race

by Erin Covey October 4, 2022 · 2:00 PM EDT

After flipping New Mexico’s 2nd District in 2020, GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell is locked in a competitive race with Gabe Vasquez, a former Las Cruces city councilmember. The massive district, which stretches across the southern half of the state, is more favorable to Democrats after redistricting, making Herrell one of Republicans’ most vulnerable members this cycle. 

A poll from Vasquez’s campaign that was first shared with Inside Elections affirms a tight race. Vasquez led Herrell, 45-43 percent – a narrow lead that falls within the 4.4 percent margin of error. Global Strategy Group conducted the survey, polling 500 likely voters from September 20 to 26. Republicans and Democrats were tied on the generic ballot at 45 percent, and Biden’s favorability is underwater at 43 percent favorable/51 percent unfavorable.

Notably, this survey indicates that the race has barely moved since mid-July, when the Vasquez campaign released a poll that had him leading Herrell, 45-44 percent. Vasquez’s name ID has gone from 31 to 49 percent in the past three months, and Herrell’s has gone from 71 to 75 percent.

While Herrell is certainly in danger of losing this cycle, Republicans have attacked Vasquez for taking progressive positions on issues such as crime. News that Vasquez anonymously told a local reporter that he supports defunding the police, which broke the day the poll came out of the field, could further hurt his ability to persuade more moderate voters in the district. Meanwhile, Democratic outside groups have aired ads tying the congresswoman to Republican members including Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Lauren Boebert of Colorado. 

Inside Elections rates this race as a Toss-up.