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2018 Election Preview: Midterms’ Mixed Messages

October 26, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

After two years of prognostication, election results are supposed to bring clarity. But the 2018 results are poised to be a mixed bag, making it difficult to land on a single narrative. 

With President Donald Trump’s mediocre job approval rating…

Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 26, 2018)

October 26, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

Arizona. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. 
Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema held a narrow but distinct advantage over GOP Rep. Martha McSally before and after the August primaries. There is some conflicting data, but that lead appears to have dissolved. And some Republicans believe…

House Report Shorts (Oct. 26, 2018)

October 26, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona’s 1st District (Tom O’Halleran, D, elected 51%). Trump 48%. Air Force veteran Wendy Rogers is running a serious campaign, won a competitive primary, and has no problem tying herself to the President. But her fundraising has been modest and Rogers hasn’t received much outside help against…

Candidate Conversation - Todd Litton (D)

October 26, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

Texas’ 2nd District — Rating: Solid Republican

Interview Date: July 26, 2018

Date of Birth: July 21, 1970; Houston, Texas

Education: Duke (1992 B.A.), Univ. of Texas Law School (1995 JD), Rice Business School (2001 MBA)

Elected Office: None; First run for office

Current Outlook: Some Democrats…

House Midterm Outlook: Look for a Democratic Flip

by Stuart Rothenberg October 25, 2018 · 5:15 PM EDT

Are we still headed for a Democratic wave in the House next month? That all depends on how you define a wave. But one thing is clear: Democrats are still likely to flip the chamber even after all the buzz about a post-Kavanaugh Republican bounce.

A wave occurs when a large number of one party’s…

Stop Calling 2018 ‘The Year Of The Woman’

by Leah Askarinam October 15, 2018 · 11:30 AM EDT

Declaring 2018 anything but the Year of the Woman is heresy by now. It’s consistently, casually mentioned as a matter of fact. This year‘s regarded as a natural succession to 1992, which was the last time an election resulted in the number of women in the House increasing by double digits. But a…

Republican Migraines and the Midterm Elections

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 14, 2018 · 8:45 AM EDT

Weather metaphors are often used (and overused) in election analysis, but there’s a better way to describe the Republicans’ challenge in 2018. The GOP is dealing with many headaches as it tries to preserve the Republican congressional majorities.

From tension to cluster to migraine, they can vary…

2018 Election Preview: GOP Bump or Trend?

October 12, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

With less than a month before Nov. 6, the fundamentals of these midterm elections are set and broadly good news for Democrats. But with dozens of close races around the country, a shift of just a couple points across the board is the difference between a…