Archive

2008 Senate Ratings

February 22, 2008 · 1:29 PM EST

Here are our latest Senate ratings.



Likely Takeover (1 R, 0 D)
  • VA Open (Warner, R)
Lean Takeover (1 R, 0 D)

  • NM Open (Domenici, R)
Toss-Up (3 R, 1 D)
  • CO Open (Allard, R)
  • Coleman (R-MN)
  • Landrieu (D-LA)
  • Sununu (R-NH)
Narrow Advantage for…

Illinois 11: GOP Nominee Baldermann Ending Bid

February 22, 2008 · 11:14 AM EST

New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann (R) is expected to end his congressional bid, according to GOP sources. The open seat, being vacated by Cong. Jerry Weller (R), was already a headache for Republicans, but this development is likely to make it even more difficult. Democrats have a strong nominee in…

Should Democrats’ Superdelegates Not Be So Super?

by Stuart Rothenberg February 20, 2008 · 11:05 PM EST

The unfortunate CNN.com headline roared “Democrats Fear Superdelegates Could Overrule Voters.”

CNN isn’t the only media outlet to run with the storyline. Many others in the media, and more than a few Democrats, also have raised the specter of superdelegates imposing their will on the party and…

The Messages From Maryland and Virginia May Be Contradictory

by Stuart Rothenberg February 17, 2008 · 11:05 PM EST

There were four, not merely two, interesting and important election contests in Maryland on Tuesday, and the results offered somewhat contradictory storylines.

In the two most high-profile races, voters backed a moderately conservative Republican, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), who often has worked…

Evidence of Evangelical Shift is still Slim

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 15, 2008 · 9:39 AM EST

Evangelicals may be shifting away from the Republican Party, but a recent poll doesn’t offer compelling evidence to support that claim.

The poll is another example of the need to examine numbers critically and cautiously, instead of taking them at face value.

Because the media consortium’s…

Media Buy Is the Message

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 14, 2008 · 11:05 PM EST

It’s going to be a long year for the National Republican Congressional Committee. Through 2007, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had a $35.1 million to $5.4 million advantage over the NRCC, and some Republican strategists privately express significant concern over how the financial…

Kennedy’s Decision to Back Obama Not So Decisive After All

by Stuart Rothenberg February 13, 2008 · 11:05 PM EST

Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy’s endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) for president was a huge story in the national media.

Dave Espo of The Associated Press said the Senator “is in a position to help Obama court voting groups who so far have tilted [Sen. Hillary Rodham] Clinton’s…

New Print Edition: Illinois 11 & Kansas 3

February 12, 2008 · 12:05 AM EST

The February 8, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and…

Tuesday’s Results Don’t Change the Political Trajectories

by Stuart Rothenberg February 10, 2008 · 11:05 PM EST

If Tuesday’s results demonstrate anything, it is that both parties remain deeply divided in their races for president.

The only difference is that the GOP’s winner-take-all system and three-way race is allowing Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) to open up a clear, and probably decisive, lead over his…

Ohio 2: A Nightmare of a Congressional Race

by Stuart Rothenberg February 6, 2008 · 10:05 PM EST

Every so often, I come across a great House race, such as the 2000 Michigan open-seat race where voters were lucky enough to be able to choose between Mike Rogers (R) and Diane Byrum (D). Those voters couldn’t lose, since both candidates clearly deserved to be in Congress. (Rogers won that race…