California 50: By the Numbers

April 16, 2006 · 12:10 AM EDT

Democrats are claiming victory after Francine Busby’s 44% showing in Tuesday’s special election to replace Rep. Duke Cunningham (R). But her fight to get over 50% in the June 6 run-off in the San Diego-area congressional seat is certainly uphill.

Busby’s showing was equivalent to John Kerry’s…

Have Democrats Expanded the Field for ’06 House Races?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 13, 2006 · 12:05 AM EDT

For more than a year now, House Democrats have insisted that they want to widen the political playing field by recruiting strong candidates in districts they often have ignored. Now, with about 40 percent of state filing deadlines having already passed, it’s time to ask: How have the Democrats…

Both Parties Guilty of Ballot Games

April 12, 2006 · 12:05 AM EDT

While some Democrats are incensed about the way former Majority Leader Tom DeLay chose to exit his race for reelection in Texas 22, both parties are guilty of being coy with election laws, primaries, and filing deadlines to gain a partisan advantage.

Of all the accusations hurled at DeLay, being…

No Time to DeLay: Now What for the Democrats?

April 11, 2006 · 12:05 AM EDT

In announcing that he was ending his Congressional career and would resign his seat in the United States House of Representatives, Representative Tom DeLay (R) gave Democrats just what they wished for: His head.

DeLay’s exit won’t deprive Democrats of their “culture of corruption” argument.…

It May Look and Smell Like a Poll, but Is It?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 10, 2006 · 12:10 AM EDT

I read “Beware of Online Polls” on the Hotline Web log only a few hours before I received a press release from Tennessee GOP Senate hopeful Ed Bryant’s campaign screaming that “Zogby Poll Confirms Bryant Strongest Candidate.” Bryant’s memo was mostly balderdash, and it’s not alone. I’m seeing…

New Print Edition: KY3, MI Senate, & Senate Ratings

April 7, 2006 · 3:39 PM EDT

The new April 7, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.)

Kentucky 3: Bucking the Trend
By Nathan L. Gonzales

Republican incumbents in districts carried by John Kerry are bracing themselves for the potential…

Kentucky 3: Bucking the Trend

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 7, 2006 · 12:57 PM EDT

Republican incumbents in districts carried by John Kerry are bracing themselves for the potential Democratic wave this November, but Kentucky’s 3rd District Cong. Anne Northup (R) is hoping to be the exception rather than the rule.

For four consecutive cycles, Democratic candidates have…

Michigan Senate: Wading Upstream

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 7, 2006 · 11:02 AM EDT

Republicans spent much of last year cycling through a list of potential candidates, but they are still taking their best shot at Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Even after names like Cong. Candice Miller, Domino’s Pizza CEO David Brandon, and Jane Abraham dropped off the board, three Republicans…

Do the Democrats Need to Nationalize the Midterm Elections?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 6, 2006 · 12:05 AM EDT

I often get asked whether Democrats will be able to nationalize this year’s midterm elections. It’s both an important and reasonable question, since the answer will determine what kind of year the parties will have in November.

But, alas, it’s the wrong question to ask.

The better question is…