House News & Analysis

District Polls Are Troubling Signs for Democrats

by Stuart Rothenberg September 8, 2010 · 10:38 AM EDT

While serious Democratic observers worry whether their party can somehow hang on to 218 seats in the House, more than a few Republican strategists and neutral observers have become convinced that the GOP is on the cusp of a stunning victory that could at least equal the party’s 52-seat…

Wave builds for GOP in the House

by Stuart Rothenberg September 6, 2010 · 10:30 PM EDT

National and local polls continue to show further deterioration in Democratic prospects. Given that, we are increasing our target of likely Republican gains from 28-33 seats to 37-42 seats, with the caveat that substantially larger GOP gains in the 45-55 seat range are quite possible. The next few weeks…

Debt: One Campaign Issue Parties Are Very Familiar With

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 26, 2010 · 2:00 PM EDT

Even with the economy and ballooning national debt at the top of voters’ minds this fall, don’t be surprised when the Republican and Democratic campaign committees dig into the red to help pay for expensive television ads across the country.

Extending a line of credit is a common…

Missouri 4: Incumbent Security?

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 25, 2010 · 10:35 PM EDT

Ike Skelton isn’t going to be able to run as a fresh face. The Democratic congressman was first elected to Congress in 1976 when Jimmy Carter was winning the White House. But he will run as a proven commodity that has delivered for the military interests of Missouri’s 4th…

Mixed News in Tuesday’s Results

by Stuart Rothenberg August 25, 2010 · 3:46 PM EDT

Tuesday’s results were an uncomfortable reminder to strategists in both parties that this is a strange election cycle. While the surprises were on the Republican side, they confirm a level of dissatisfaction, at least on the political right, with politics as usual and established politicians.

Certainly many current…

House Ratings Changes in GA8, IL11, TX17, TX23, WA3

August 23, 2010 · 3:28 PM EDT

Georgia 8. Republicans had a hard time finding a credible challenger to Democratic Cong. Jim Marshall. But now that state Rep. Austin Scott is in the race, this district becomes dramatically more interesting. Marshall has proven his skill since he was first elected in 2002, but he faces a…

Are Voters Really Moving Beyond Race?

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 23, 2010 · 10:59 AM EDT

From Barack Obama’s election as president to a white Congressman fending off African-American challengers in a majority-black district, have Americans moved beyond race as a determining factor in their vote choice?

A couple of weeks ago, Tennessee Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen, the white, Jewish incumbent, won re-nomination over…

Is Michelle Obama Democrats’ Secret Weapon?

by Stuart Rothenberg August 17, 2010 · 9:00 AM EDT

“The White House is hoping that Michelle can do for Barack what Laura did for George and the GOP four years ago,” wrote Washington Post political reporter Nia-Malika Henderson recently, in an August 11, 2010 article that reported on efforts to get the First Lady heavily involved in this…

Ohio 16: Suicide Squeeze

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 13, 2010 · 4:01 PM EDT

Two years ago, John Boccieri was a Democratic superstar, a top recruit, a fresh-faced state legislator with a military record who, by this time last cycle, was on his way to taking over an open seat that had been in Republican hands for three decades. Today, he’s in grave…

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

by Stuart Rothenberg August 10, 2010 · 9:56 AM EDT

Competitive open seats usually follow the direction of the overall cycle, so with House Republicans poised for large gains, it should be no surprise that most of the open seats that flip will be headed their way. The districts at the top of the list are more likely to…