House News & Analysis

Maine 2: Out in the Open

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2014 · 3:59 PM EDT

Republican Members of Congress are an endangered species in the Northeast, but Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud’s exit from Maine’s 2nd District gives Republicans an opportunity to win back the seat for the first time in 20 years.

For an open seat, the fields are relatively clear with two…

Report Shorts (May 9, 2014) Georgia Governor, Hawaii Governor, North Carolina Senate, and more

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

Florida’s 19th District. Businessman Curt Clawson won the special GOP primary and is the prohibitive favorite in the June special general election. The seat was open after GOP Rep. Trey Radel’s resignation.

Georgia Governor. Gov. Nathan Deal’s mishandling of the state’s winter storm response threw a bit of…

Why This Year’s Primaries Won’t End GOP Civil War

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2014 · 9:49 AM EDT

The Republican establishment is fighting back, but winning a few primaries this year won’t do much to end the insurgency from party purists. It only takes one general election loss by an establishment candidate to reignite the fire.

Observers see what they want to see in the results,…

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is …

by Stuart Rothenberg May 7, 2014 · 10:19 AM EDT

Who is winning the primary campaign war within the GOP between pragmatic conservatives and the anti-establishment wing of the party?

It’s a simple question, but it isn’t as easy to answer as you might think. Part of the problem is deciding which candidates and races are part of…

Beware of the Surprise House Primary Losers

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 6, 2014 · 9:42 AM EDT

Rep. Mike Simpson looks like he’ll survive the epic establishment vs. anti-establishment struggle in the GOP primary in Idaho’s 2nd District. But if last cycle is any indication, the incumbents that lose primaries this year will be in low-profile races rather than high profile battles between outside groups.

Democrats Pin Hopes on New Candidate, Unconventional Process in Florida’s 13th District

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 2, 2014 · 12:27 PM EDT

The filing deadline in Florida has passed and Democrats are banking on a potentially attractive candidate, but an even more unconventional process, to take another shot at the 13th District.

Democrats recruited Colonel Ed Jany to run in the seat now being held by Republican Rep. David Jolly…

How to Ruin Your Interview With Stu Rothenberg

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 2, 2014 · 10:38 AM EDT

After interviewing more than 1,000 candidates for the House and Senate with my colleague, Stu Rothenberg, I’ve got a pretty good idea of what makes him tick and what just plain ticks him off.

Over the course of the past 25 years, Stu has garnered somewhat of a…

Rating New York’s 11th District and One of My Worst Mistakes as a Political Handicapper

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 28, 2014 · 3:12 PM EDT

New York Rep. Michael Grimm’s arrest reminded me of one of my worst mistakes as a political handicapper.

In May 2006, the FBI raided Louisiana Rep. William Jefferson’s offices and home on suspicion of corruption. I assumed that since agents found $90,000 cash wrapped in aluminum…

North Carolina: Primary Purpose

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 25, 2014 · 3:00 PM EDT

With the Senate majority hanging in the balance, the Republican primary in North Carolina has gained national attention. But a handful of House primaries in the Tar Heel State are also important including open seats in safe districts, a long-time incumbent facing a challenge, and a former American Idol…

Wisconsin 6: Open Seat B’gosh

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 25, 2014 · 2:59 PM EDT

Republicans are retiring from competitive congressional districts but this might be the wrong cycle for Democrats to take advantage of the opportunities.

The latest Member to announce his retirement is GOP Rep. Tom Petri of Wisconsin’s 6th District. President Barack Obama won the district narrowly in 2008, making…