House News & Analysis

Memo to Democrats: Running Toward Barack Obama Might Work

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 21, 2014 · 10:13 AM EDT

Should vulnerable Democratic incumbents in Republican-leaning districts run from President Barack Obama? The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza did a good job of explaining the futility of the strategy in his Tuesday post, “Memo to Democrats: Running from Barack Obama Won’t Work.”

There is an alternative, though in…

Another Cycle, Another Poll Memo About Florida’s 2nd District

by Stuart Rothenberg March 19, 2014 · 10:05 AM EDT

Democratic memos about the party’s optimistic prospects in Florida’s 2nd district never die. They simply fade away until the next election cycle, when a new one miraculously surfaces.

This cycle, the memo is from Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, and it insists that the Democratic nominee for Congress, Gwen…

Jolly Wins Special, Florida’s 13th Starts as Lean Republican for Midterm

by Stuart Rothenberg March 11, 2014 · 10:16 PM EDT

Republican David Jolly eked out a narrow win over Democrat Alex Sink to keep the late congressman Bill Young’s seat in the GOP column. Polls had shown the race close, but most observers expected Sink, who lost the governor’s race narrowly in 2010, to defeat Jolly by two or…

Why Polls Still Show Democrats With Higher Marks Than Republicans

by Stuart Rothenberg March 11, 2014 · 4:29 PM EDT

Political brands are important. If a candidate or political party has a damaged political brand, it’s harder for them to sell themselves to voters. But sometimes a poll’s top lines can be deceiving, so you need to look a little below the surface to understand what is going on.

Why Florida’s 13th District Special Election Is Still a Tossup

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 10, 2014 · 10:31 PM EDT

After almost five months and more than $9 million in campaign spending, neither Democrat Alex Sink nor Republican David Jolly has a clear upper-hand in the final hours before Tuesday’s special election in Florida’s 13th District.

Even though polling continues to show a neck-and-neck race, many Democrats are…

Why Republican Candidates Will Run From .GOP Address

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 7, 2014 · 10:54 AM EST

A Republican group recently boasted about Republicans becoming “the only political party in history to run a Web ending.”

But it would be surprising if many Republican candidates are anxious to put .GOP behind their name.

The Republican State Leadership Committee led the effort to secure the…

Democrats Have Primaries, Too

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 6, 2014 · 1:34 PM EST

Every six minutes, some reporter in the world is writing about a Republican primary. That’s not to say that GOP primaries don’t matter — because sometimes they do — but there are a handful of Democratic House primaries that could have general election ramifications as well.

Here is…

Why Ken Buck Has the Inside Track in Colorado’s 4th District

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 4, 2014 · 9:41 AM EST

For the second time, Republican Ken Buck has failed to become a United States senator from Colorado. But his most recent campaign was not in vain and helped make him the front-runner for a seat in the House.

GOP Rep. Cory Gardner’s decision last week to challenge…

Illinois Primaries: GOP Races Set Stage for November

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 28, 2014 · 2:58 PM EST

Illinois could host a handful of competitive congressional contests this November, but a trio of primaries on March 18 will set the stage for the general election. And while Democrats are focused on taking over governorships in some of the country’s largest states, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin,…

Report Shorts (February 28, 2014) Colorado Senate, Michigan 12, Texas 33

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 28, 2014 · 2:57 PM EST

Colorado Senate. In a surprise decision, Republican Rep. Cory Gardner decided to jump into the Colorado Senate race against incumbent Democrat Mark Udall. The Denver Post broke the news on Wednesday and we immediately moved the race from Safe to Democrat Favored.

But in less than a day,…