Archive

The NRA is Missing an Opportunity to Control Gun Debate

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2013 · 3:04 PM EDT

The National Rifle Association has an opportunity to claim the mantle of public support in the gun control debate, and it would cost the group only a few thousand dollars in a meaningless race in Missouri to do it.

State House Speaker Pro Tem Jason Smith (R) is heavily favored to win the June 4…

House Strategists Differ on Candidate Timing

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2013 · 12:01 PM EDT

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel began calling prospective Democratic candidates for 2014 on Election Night 2012, but many Republican strategists have been encouraging their potential recruits to keep their powder dry.

House strategists on both sides of the…

Ranking Potential Flips for 2014 House Rematches

by Stuart Rothenberg May 8, 2013 · 12:06 PM EDT

It’s looking as if we may see more than a dozen House race rematches in 2014. While some of them are likely to have the same outcomes as in 2012, others could easily flip party control. Here is my initial list of potential rematch flips, with the first contests listed more likely to flip and the…

Georgia 12: Barrow Declines Senate Run, But House Democrats Rejoice

May 7, 2013 · 10:00 PM EDT

Rep. John Barrow (D) announced on Tuesday that he would not run for the U.S. Senate in Georgia and he will likely seek re-election to his House seat. His decision dramatically improved Democratic chances of holding the 12th District, which leans Republican, by the numbers. Without him, it would…

South Carolina 1: Sanford Wins, Seat Returns to Safe GOP for 2014

May 7, 2013 · 9:57 PM EDT

Former Gov. Mark Sanford disappointed both parties by winning the special election in South Carolina’s 1st District and keeping the seat in Republican hands.

It looks like national GOP strategists played the special election just right for once, and it wasn’t because they held the seat. With…

South Carolina 1 Special a Photo Finish?

by Stuart Rothenberg May 6, 2013 · 11:08 PM EDT

With the special election in South Carolina just one day away, both Republicans and Democrats are unsure of the outcome.

Former Palmetto State Gov. Mark Sanford, a Republican, began with a narrow advantage over Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch, but even Republicans pulling for Sanford believe…

History Lessons and the 2014 Midterms

by Stuart Rothenberg May 6, 2013 · 9:18 AM EDT

Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics.com joins the growing chorus of political handicappers who have been arguing that we aren’t likely to see a partisan wave next cycle. Trende’s analysis, which also addresses the “six-year itch,” is spot on (as it usually is).

There is no evidence right now that…

Can Republicans Win Six Senate Seats and Control?

by Stuart Rothenberg May 3, 2013 · 2:00 PM EDT

It’s still very early in the 2013-2014 election cycle and plenty can change in the months ahead, but Republicans start off looking poised to make considerable Senate gains. All eight of the most vulnerable Senate seats this cycle are currently held by Democrats, and five of those seats currently…

2014 Senate Overview (May 3, 2013) Alabama - Kansas

May 3, 2013 · 1:59 PM EDT

ALABAMA -- Jeff Sessions (R), elected 1996 (52%), 2002 (59%) and 2008 (63%).
The last Democratic Senate nominee to win over 40 percent of the vote in Alabama was Roger Bedford in 1996 (45.5 percent). Sessions’ March 30 FEC report showed him with just over $2.8 million in the bank. Safe…