Archive

New York 21: Have We Seen This Movie Before?

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 14, 2014 · 4:30 PM EST

New York’s North Country is home to one of the most famous Republican implosions in recent political history. Now the 21st District is open once again and the GOP is hoping to not replay the divisions of the past. The district is a solid takeover opportunity for Republicans, and this type of open…

Texas Primaries: House, Not the Senate, is the Place to Watch

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 14, 2014 · 4:29 PM EST

The 2014 election cycle officially gets underway in a few weeks when voters in Texas go to the polls for the primaries.

Because of the recent string of high-profile Republican Senate primaries over the last couple of cycles, Rep. Steve Stockman’s challenge to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn received…

Senate Poll Analysis is More than the “Leading” Candidate

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 14, 2014 · 4:28 PM EST

Analyzing polls is more than just looking at the general election ballot tests, but you wouldn’t know it from much of the media coverage these days. And two recent Senate polls are good examples.

“SCORE EXCLUSIVE-PPP FINDS BEGICH LEADING ALL GOP OPPONENTS,” according to a recent POLITICO email.…

Report Shorts (February 14, 2013) California 31, New Jersey 1, Washington 4

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 14, 2014 · 4:27 PM EST

California 31. Republican Rep. Gary Miller, the most vulnerable House Republican in the country, announced his retirement on Wednesday. But the Inland Empire district was already rated Lean Democrat, so it doesn’t improve Democrats’ math to the majority at all.

The Democratic race pits former…

DCCC Is 2013 Fundraising Winner, but DNC Drops the Ball

by Stuart Rothenberg February 13, 2014 · 1:57 PM EST

A look at the end-of-the-year financial reports of the two House campaign committees, two Senate campaign committees and two national party committees makes it pretty clear which ones have something to crow about and which have some explaining to do.

The big winner is the Democratic…

How Candidates Share Without Coordinating With Outside Groups

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 11, 2014 · 9:58 AM EST

With each passing election cycle, both parties are figuring out new ways to skirt campaign finance laws.

A couple years ago, I wrote about how the official and independent expenditure wings of the campaign committees share opposition research and message points through less-traveled regions of…

2014 Senate Ratings (February 7, 2014)

February 7, 2014 · 12:25 PM EST

North Carolina 2: Clay Aiken In, Seat Still Safe GOP for Now

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 6, 2014 · 10:22 AM EST

Everyone take a deep breath. Thanks to Clay Aiken, North Carolina’s 2nd District just became the most talked-about House race in the country. Unfortunately, the hype doesn’t match up with the reality.

The truth is that Aiken’s challenge to GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers doesn’t even make the list of 50…

For Democrats, It’s All About (Years) After November

by Stuart Rothenberg February 5, 2014 · 3:57 PM EST

Politics is often about keeping one eye on today and another eye on tomorrow. That’s especially true for Democrats, who should not be completely disheartened about their party’s prospects.

November certainly looks like a challenging election for supporters of President Barack Obama — given the…

California House Districts: Still Adjusting to New Landscape

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 31, 2014 · 3:00 PM EST

For decades, California was a wasteland of non-competitive congressional races. But with a non-partisan redistricting commission and a top two primary system, suddenly there are over a dozen races worth watching in the Golden State.

A handful of districts are noteworthy because they are…