Texas 22: Two Scenarios Provide Different Prospects

July 12, 2006 · 12:01 AM EDT

The recent news in Texas 22 doesn’t change the outlook for the seat in November…yet.

With former House majority leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) on the ballot, the race would immediately move to at least a toss-up race, if not closer to Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) in the lean takeover category. Ney is in all…

The Dog Days of Summer

July 10, 2006 · 12:10 AM EDT

School’s out for summer and families are headed for vacation, and the average American is more likely to contemplate the acceptable number of daily sunscreen applications rather than getting into the weeds of the immigration policy and stances of two congressional candidates. But even though…

New Print Edition: Handicapping the State Legislatures

July 7, 2006 · 12:05 AM EDT

The new July 7, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.)

Handicapping the State Legislatures: A 50-State Status Report
By Louis Jacobson

Both Democrats and Republicans agree: Despite the possibility of a wave at…

In Political Waves, Tide Doesn’t Rise to Same Level in Every State

by Stuart Rothenberg July 6, 2006 · 12:01 AM EDT

The last major national political wave, in 1994, didn’t sweep over all areas of the country with equal force. In some states, Congressional Democrats suffered minimal losses, while in others Democratic House seats fell in bunches.

For Democrats to take the House this year, they may need one or…

Utah 3: Not So fast, Congressman Tancredo!

July 5, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

Congressman Chris Cannon, Republican of Utah’s 3rd District, was staggered, but he didn’t go down for the count. Instead, it was businessman John Jacob, whose anti-immigration campaign was backed by Colorado GOP Congressman Tom Tancredo, who was knocked out by Republican primary voters on June…

Presidential Races Taking on Chess Match Quality

by Stuart Rothenberg July 3, 2006 · 12:02 AM EDT

As in chess, where a competitor decides what to do based on his or her opponent’s moves, Republican and Democratic primary voters and caucus attendees are likely to spend as much time in 2007 and early 2008 watching their opponents as thinking about their own choices.

Since both parties are…

New Print Edition: Maryland Senate & Vermont At-Large

June 30, 2006 · 2:47 PM EDT

The new June 30, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.)

Maryland Senate: Race Matters
By Nathan L. Gonzales

If national Republicans are looking at reliably Democratic Maryland for one of their best Senate…

Who Created the Phony Al Gore Boomlet?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 29, 2006 · 12:01 AM EDT

I’m just now recovering from the most recent frenzy about a possible Al Gore presidential bid in 2008, and I’m hopeful that we’ll still have another few months before we get our next “Is Al Gore changing his mind and running for president in 2008?” boomlet.

But another round of Gore…

Connecticut Senate: Lieberman Faces Serious Test From Lamont

June 27, 2006 · 12:01 AM EDT

National Democratic insiders aren’t pulling many punches when it comes to Sen. Joe Lieberman’s (D-CT) primary in Connecticut against businessman Ned Lamont. They are saying that Lieberman could lose.

The senator is having considerable problems with older white men, and his allies are counting…

Montana Senate: Is Conrad Burns Headed for Defeat This Fall?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 26, 2006 · 12:01 AM EDT

Once burned, twice shy: That’s simply another way of saying that I’m more cautious about handicapping the Montana Senate race than I am other Senate contests.

Just days before the 2000 elections, my newsletter moved GOP Sen. Conrad Burns from “Toss-up” to “Lean Takeover.” That rating change was…