Archive

Can Mitt Romney Conquer Newt Gingrich, His Own Ceiling?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 16, 2011 · 9:38 AM EST

Mitt Romney’s ceiling in Iowa doesn’t look like glass. It looks like reinforced concrete.

Even after three conservative candidates rose and fell in polling in Iowa, the former Massachusetts governor still can’t get above the 25 percent mark in the crucial early caucus state. “That really says…

Another Year of Prognostication Ups and Downs

by Stuart Rothenberg December 14, 2011 · 11:37 AM EST

“Regrets, I’ve had a few,” Frank Sinatra sings in one of his signature songs, “My Way,” and that should be a sentiment that every political analyst, handicapper and forecaster feels as he or she looks back on a body of work from the previous 12 months.

Few people like to admit mistakes, but…

Democratic Consultant a Winner in Predicting Heisman Trophy

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 10, 2011 · 9:37 AM EST

Consultant Kari Chisholm spends most of his life helping Democrats get elected to public office, but every year he takes a couple of weeks to devote himself to a 25-pound bronze statue of a football player.

Through his website, StiffArmTrophy.com, Chisholm has correctly projected the past nine…

Do Democrats Face More Trouble From Occupy Wall Street?

by Stuart Rothenberg December 9, 2011 · 10:50 AM EST

It’s hard to say exactly when the Occupy Wall Street movement fizzled, but so far it has failed to become the politically potent force that the tea party was during the 2010 election cycle.

But even if the Occupy movement has not yet broadened its appeal or redefined our politics, it could…

Fight for Senate Hinges on Six White House Battlegrounds

by Stuart Rothenberg December 7, 2011 · 9:48 AM EST

With 11 months to go until the 2012 elections, the fight for control of the Senate already seems to boil down to a dozen states.

If, as many believe, we have entered a new era of parliamentary-type voting, when ticket-splitting becomes increasingly rare and the top of the ticket defines…

New Texas Map Yet Another Win for Democrats

by Stuart Rothenberg December 2, 2011 · 1:59 PM EST

A three-judge federal district court has presented a Texas congressional district map that will be used for the 2012 elections, and it is another win for state and national Democrats. Court-drawn and independent commission or agency-drawn maps in Arizona, Colorado, California, Iowa and Texas have…

Colorado Map: Two Democratic Targets Might Net One Seat

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 2, 2011 · 1:58 PM EST

It’s no surprise that Colorado will feature a pair of competitive congressional races next year, but the new map radically changed one GOP incumbent’s prospects by turning his safe seat into one of the most competitive districts in the country.

Republicans hold a 4-3 advantage in the…

North Dakota Senate: Race in the Mirror Not as Close as It Appears

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 2, 2011 · 1:57 PM EST

You know Democrats are on the defensive in the Senate when they are desperately making the case that one of their open seats is still competitive and not a lost cause.

North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad’s (D) surprise retirement took a safe Democratic seat and turned it into almost a safe Republican…