Inside Elections

2012 RPR Electoral Vote Estimate (September 28, 2012) Romney vs. Obama

September 28, 2012 · 1:53 PM EDT

Eight House Incumbents to Watch for Clues

by Stuart Rothenberg September 25, 2012 · 9:47 AM EDT

Looking for clues about November? If so, you might keep your eyes on a handful of House incumbents seeking re-election. Their fate could tell you a great deal about the mood of the voters, the ability of candidates to separate themselves from the top of the ticket and the importance of individual…

Presidential Ratings Change: Advantage Obama

by Stuart Rothenberg September 21, 2012 · 4:52 PM EDT

We are moving six states in our presidential race ratings: Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin from Toss-up to Lean Obama, and Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania to Solid Obama. 

Deteriorating state poll numbers for Mitt Romney suggest that these states have moved a few points toward the president,…

2012 RPR Electoral Vote Estimate (September 21, 2012) Romney vs. Obama

September 21, 2012 · 3:05 PM EDT

In Politics, Expect the Unexpected

by Stuart Rothenberg September 21, 2012 · 3:00 PM EDT

I was on a panel at an event in the nation's capital Sept. 10. The subject was the elections, and another panelist and I discussed the race for the White House and the fight for control of Congress.

Toward the end of the event, someone in the audience asked about foreign policy. Does it matter…

‘State Waves’ and the Fight for the Senate

by Stuart Rothenberg September 17, 2012 · 9:00 AM EDT

While there is no evidence that a national partisan wave will develop between now and Nov. 6, there is every reason to expect a number of "state waves" that will prove to be challenging for some candidates - and for political handicappers.

In fact, candidates' abilities to fight through the…

Senate Majority Still Hangs in the Balance

September 14, 2012 · 12:59 PM EDT

With Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill’s Missouri Senate seat moving from more likely than not to switch to the GOP to more likely than not to remain in Democratic hands, Republican chances for taking back the Senate have slipped.

The Senate is certainly still “in play” -- but only if…

Death of the Presidential Race Has Been Exaggerated

September 14, 2012 · 12:58 PM EDT

One week after the end of the Democratic convention it’s still hard to know whether the small Obama bounce in polling after the conventions reflects a permanent shift in the presidential race toward Obama’s benefit or is merely a momentary blip on the radar screen.

Some campaign watchers…

Democrats Scramble to Make Case for House Majority

September 14, 2012 · 12:57 PM EDT

While their chances of holding the White House and the Senate might be improving, Democrats still face long odds in their effort to retake the majority in the House.

Democrats need to gain 25 seats but are still hindered by spending money defending some of their own incumbents and open seats.…

2012 House Ratings (September 14, 2012)

September 14, 2012 · 12:56 PM EDT