North Carolina 1: Tar Heel Target

North Carolina has been at the center of the House battlefield for much of the last decade, with the evenly divided state often hosting multiple competitive races.

Not so in 2024.

A Republican takeover of the state Supreme Court in 2022 cleared the way for the GOP-controlled state legislature to redraw the Tar Heel state’s congressional map from one that produced a tied delegation to one that should result in at least three GOP pickups this fall.

The one remaining competitive seat is the 1st District, where Democrat Don Davis is in his first term. While the state legislature didn’t dismantle his district, likely out of worry that the courts would step in to protect a Black-opportunity seat, the new map still makes his path to re-election more difficult.

And unlike in 2022, when he faced one of the most flawed GOP House candidates of the cycle, now Davis has to beat a top GOP recruit — in a district that could easily vote against President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.

The Lay of the Land
The 1st District sits in the northeast corner of the state, running along the Virginia border from the Outer Banks west to the Raleigh-Durham suburbs. The 1st also wraps a tendril south around Pitt County (Greenville), picking up Kinston and Goldsboro.

A rural district, roughly 51 percent of the 1st’s voting-age population is white, while 40 percent is Black. The counties north of Greenville in the center of the district are predominantly Black, while the Raleigh suburbs…

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