2024 Election Projections: How’d We Do?
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
Donald Trump winning another election created the perception that political handicapping was impossible. But not only was his victory not a surprise this time, but our political projections overall were pretty darn good this cycle.
The Republican trifecta (winning the White House, a Senate majority and holding onto the House) may have felt like a surprise after months of coverage about a close election. But all of the outcomes were firmly within the realm of possibility and some results were even expected.
Senate
A Republican takeover of the Senate was one of the least surprising outcomes of the 2024 cycle. The GOP needed to gain at least one seat and win the White House for Senate control or gain two seats for an outright majority. In the end, Republicans gained four seats, which was within our pre-election range of a GOP gain of 2-4 seats.
A Republican gain was expected going back to our initial projection of +1-3 seats for the GOP back on May 9. Republicans held all of their own seats while taking over West Virginia, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania was the only race to break against our pre-election ratings. A majority of the data showed Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. with a narrow advantage and the race was rated Tilt Democratic, but Republican Dave McCormick prevailed. All 32 of the other Senate races not rated as a Toss-up aligned with our ratings.
That doesn’t mean the ratings were perfectly aligned…
