2022 Senate Overview (July 1, 2022): The Slog to the Majority

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Republicans are set up for sweeping success in the midterm elections, but it’s turning out to be a race by race slog to the Senate majority for the GOP. 

With a slumping economy and concerns about inflation, high gas prices, the supply chain, crime, and immigration, voters are poised to punish the party in power. And it’s no secret that Joe Biden’s political standing is weak. For more than eight months, a majority of Americans have disapproved of the job he’s doing as president.

Yet even with the wind at their backs, capturing the net gain of just one seat they need for control of the Senate is proving to be a difficult task for Republicans. 

Democratic and Republican strategists agree that most Democratic incumbents and candidates are overperforming Biden’s job rating in key states. One of the most important factors of the entire cycle is whether Democrats can retain that distance from Biden or if Republicans are able to saddle Democratic candidates with the unpopular president in the final four months. Control of the Senate depends on it. 

Republicans are wrestling with the dichotomy of pressing into states such as Colorado and Washington, that could be within reach in a good midterm political environment, while also having to worry about states such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Missouri. Those are states that shouldn’t be a concern in a good political environment, but where there’s work to be done…

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