Senate Ratings

January 6, 2010 · 9:17 AM EST

Two Democratic retirements essentially cancel each other in terms of the outlook for the Senate.

Democratic prospects got significantly worse in North Dakota with Sen. Byron Dorgan’s (D) departure. Gov. John Hoeven (R) was leading Dorgan in hypothetical match-ups and he would be a heavy favorite in an open seat if he chooses to run. The Democratic bench consists of only one person- At-Large Cong. Earl Pomeroy- but he looks to be initially unlikely to run.

Democratic prospects brightened in Connecticut now that Sen. Chris Dodd (D) is not running for reelection. Dodd appeared to be stuck at or below 40% in public polls and was in dire shape for another term. Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) is going run in Dodd’s place and is the favorite to keep the seat in Democratic hands.

We’ve also moved the Arkansas and Colorado races to Toss-Up, not because of breaking news, such as Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter’s (D) retirement announcement, but because the national mood has changed and public polls consistently show the Democrats in those two states in a very vulnerable position.

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 2 D)
  • ND Open (Dorgan, D) *
  • DE Open (Kaufman, D)
Toss-Up (4 R, 5 D)
  • KY Open (Bunning, R)
  • MO Open (Bond, R)
  • NH Open (Gregg, R)
  • OH Open (Voinovich, R)
  • IL Open (Burris, D)
  • Bennet (D-CO) *
  • Lincoln (D-AR) *
  • Reid (D-NV)
  • Specter (D-PA)
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 0 D)
  • Burr (R-NC)
  • Vitter (R-LA)
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 1 D)
  • Grassley (R-IA)
  • FL Open (LeMieux, R)
  • CT Open (Dodd, D) #

Currently Safe (10 R, 11 D)

  • Bennett (R-UT)
  • Coburn (R-OK)
  • Crapo (R-ID)
  • DeMint (R-SC)
  • Isakson (R-GA)
  • McCain (R-AZ)
  • Murkowski (R-AK)
  • Shelby (R-AL)
  • Thune (R-SD)
  • KS Open (Brownback, R)
  • Bayh (D-IN)
  • Boxer (D-CA)
  • Feingold (D-WI)
  • Gillibrand (D-NY)
  • Inouye (D-HI)
  • Leahy (D-VT)
  • Mikulski (D-MD)
  • Murray (D-WA)
  • Schumer (D-NY)
  • Wyden (D-OR)
  • MA Open (Kirk, D)