President News & Analysis

Election Predictions Look Different (and Better) Now that All the Races are Over

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 22, 2021 · 9:09 AM EST

More than two months later, the 2020 elections are still handing out lessons. The latest: Don’t judge election projections until all the results have hatched.

Lost in the aftermath of the siege on the U.S. Capitol was the fact that Democrats won two Senate runoffs in Georgia. Not only does…

Lessons and Challenges: Assessing the Performance of Polls in the 2020 Election

by Bradley Wascher December 18, 2020 · 2:28 PM EST

In the six weeks since November 3rd, much has been said about the performance of election polling. Were the polls good enough, or were they catastrophically wrong? The answer of course depends on whom you ask, but one thing is clear: pollsters could have done better. 

To be fair, the…

How Biden Rebuilt the Blue Wall

by Ryan Matsumoto December 3, 2020 · 2:28 PM EST

In 2016, Donald Trump shocked the world by flipping three “Blue Wall” states that had voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Although Barack Obama carried these states by comfortable margins in 2008 and 2012, Trump narrowly carried each of them by less than 1…

How Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Could Complicate GOP Chances in 2022

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 2, 2020 · 4:22 PM EST

After President Donald Trump boosted down-ballot Republicans in 2020, the GOP might be excited about his reported plans to avenge his loss by immediately beginning a race for the presidency in 2024. But while he delivered the White House once before and has shown a unique ability to consistently outperform…

Trump’s Surprising Gains with Minority Voters

by Ryan Matsumoto November 19, 2020 · 2:28 PM EST

One of the first signs that we were in for a long election week was when Miami-Dade County, Florida released its first vote totals.  Although Joe Biden won Miami-Dade County 53 percent to 46 percent, this was a substantial decline from Hillary Clinton’s 64 percent to 34 percent…

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 30, 2020)

by Bradley Wascher October 30, 2020 · 9:27 AM EDT

The 2020 campaign isn’t quite over yet, but it is reaching the denouement. And as the final surveys continue to trickle in until Tuesday, now is a great time to step back and contextualize the trends driving the past six months of general election polls. 

Starting off with today’s topline:…

2020 Election Preview: Bracing for History

October 28, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

No matter what happens, the 2020 elections will be historic. With impeachment, a pandemic, economic crisis, a national conversation about racism, and the death of a Supreme Court icon, this election cycle is already unforgettable, even before knowing the actual results.  

While it’s…

2020 Elections: Democrats Poised for a Sweep

October 16, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

The unthinkable has happened. A resilient presidential race has shifted, but not in a way that was expected. 

In the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s first debate performance and subsequent hospitalization for coronavirus, Joe Biden’s national standing has improved by a couple of…

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 16, 2020)

by Bradley Wascher October 16, 2020 · 10:10 AM EDT

We’re 17 days removed from the first presidential debate, 14 days removed from President Donald Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, and 18 days away from November 3rd. It might feel like a year, but it’s only been two weeks — and following the fallout of these campaign-shaking events, Joe Biden finds himself…

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 2, 2020)

by Bradley Wascher October 2, 2020 · 10:15 AM EDT

In light of last night’s news about President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump testing positive for the coronavirus, there’s no doubt that this election has already received an October surprise. Pair this development with Tuesday night’s rowdy presidential debate, and it’s easy to conjure up the narrative of…