House News & Analysis

Gerrymandering Is Not to Blame for the Speaker Mess

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 16, 2023 · 5:37 PM EDT

Whenever something goes wrong on Capitol Hill, gerrymandering is cited as the root of the problem. But while redistricting continues to be a blatantly political act in most states, Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ouster is a good example of why gerrymandering is not always the cause of chaos in Congress.

“Congress…

Maine 2: Going for Golden

by Jacob Rubashkin October 13, 2023 · 2:30 PM EDT

Maine’s 2nd District has beguiled Republicans for the last three election cycles, as Democrat Jared Golden racks up wins in what is otherwise GOP country.

The rural district along the Canadian border is overwhelmingly white, doesn’t have many college-educated voters, and backs Republicans for president, governor and Senate.

But ever…

Arizona 1: Scottsdale Showdown

by Erin Covey October 13, 2023 · 2:29 PM EDT

Rep. David Schweikert has become increasingly vulnerable over the past several election cycles. Last November, local Democratic activist Jevin Hodge came just 3,195 votes away from unseating the Republican congressman, a tighter race than both Republicans and Democrats were expecting.

Last cycle’s tantalizingly close race has inspired a slew of…

Report Shorts (Oct. 13, 2023)

October 13, 2023 · 2:28 PM EDT

Alabama Redistricting. Federal judges have decided on a new congressional map after the Republican-controlled state legislature failed to draw a map that complied with the court’s order. Democrats are poised to flip the new 2nd District, which Joe Biden would have won by 12 points. Current 2nd District GOP Rep. Barry…

Podcast Episode 7: Speaker Fight and House Majority, California, New Jersey Senate

October 5, 2023 · 1:38 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Erin Covey and Jacob Rubashkin discuss how the search for a new Speaker could affect the fight for the House, how the California Senate is shaping up after the appointment of Laphonza Butler, and what’s going to happen in the New Jersey Senate race after Sen. Bob Menendez…

´╗┐Michigan 7: The Last Man Standing in Lansing

by Erin Covey September 29, 2023 · 2:30 PM EDT

Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s U.S. Senate campaign is a boon to Democrats attempting to maintain their tenuous grip on the Senate majority — and a loss for the party’s fight to reclaim the House majority in 2024.

The moderate congresswoman, one of her party’s most prodigious fundraisers, represents one…

Report Shorts (Sept. 29, 2023)

September 29, 2023 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona Senate. 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake plans to launch her campaign on Oct. 10. Lake, a Trump acolyte, is the clear frontrunner in the GOP primary, but her path to victory in the general election is more complicated. Rep. Ruben Gallego is the likely Democratic nominee. Independent Sen. Kyrsten…

Tracking Redistricting Battles Ahead of 2024

by Erin Covey September 26, 2023 · 3:00 PM EDT

Though the 2024 election cycle is well underway, redistricting battles continue across several states.

With the control of the U.S. House on the line, both parties are keeping a close watch on the map drawing processes in North Carolina, Alabama, New York, and several other states still in the midst…

Virginia 10: New NoVa Open

by Jacob Rubashkin September 21, 2023 · 4:00 PM EDT

Democrat Jennifer Wexton’s surprise announcement that she would not seek a fourth term in Congress kicks off an open seat race in the rapidly changing Northern Virginia suburbs. 

Wexton, who flipped the 10th District from longtime GOP control in 2018, had announced she was diagnosed with Parkinson’s Disease earlier this…

Podcast Episode 6: House Majority Fight, Toss-Up Races, NASCAR Candidate

September 21, 2023 · 2:55 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Erin Covey discuss the fight for the House majority including the key Toss-up races, races with recent rating changes, and the Republican NASCAR driver running in Maine.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential and gubernatorial races in a nonpartisan, data-driven, and accessible way. With…