House News & Analysis

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

by Stuart Rothenberg August 10, 2010 · 9:56 AM EDT

Competitive open seats usually follow the direction of the overall cycle, so with House Republicans poised for large gains, it should be no surprise that most of the open seats that flip will be headed their way. The districts at the top of the list are more likely to…

Even Veteran Members Will Struggle to Win

by Stuart Rothenberg August 4, 2010 · 8:58 AM EDT

Reps. Chet Edwards (D-Texas), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) and John Spratt (D-S.C.) need to keep in mind the fate of former Reps. Jim Leach (R-Iowa) and Sue Kelly (R-N.Y.).

Kelly, first elected in 1994, had only one tough race (in 1996) before she was upset in 2006. In…

DCCC Turns to Mook’s Ground Game for Fall

by Nathan L. Gonzales August 2, 2010 · 2:54 PM EDT

Second in a series of profiles of committee independent expenditure directors.

Democratic operative Robby Mook’s entry into politics was a little dirty.

“I remember standing in front of the dump for hours,” Mook recalled. “Everyone takes their trash to the dump in Vermont, so that’s where you…

North Dakota At-Large: It’s Lonely Up Here

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 30, 2010 · 3:30 PM EDT

Republicans aren’t going to sneak up on Earl Pomeroy. The nine-term Democratic congressman from North Dakota has been a target before and he even survived the Republican revolution in 1994. 

Pomeroy is ready for another tough reelection race, this time against long-time state Rep. Rick Berg (R), and…

Huge GOP Gains Weren’t Always Inevitable This Year

by Stuart Rothenberg July 30, 2010 · 10:45 AM EDT

Sometimes, you can almost hear the conventional wisdom and expectations shift, even when they are based on faulty premises.

I’ve heard dozens of times over the past few months that large Democratic losses in the House were inevitable this year because of sweeping Democratic victories in 2006 and…

New York 1: Nixon Grandson Finds the Going Rocky in Bid for Congress

by Stuart Rothenberg July 28, 2010 · 10:07 AM EDT

Republican insiders are quietly skeptical that the grandson of the late President Richard M. Nixon, attorney/businessman Chris Cox, will make it out of the Republican primary in New York’s 1st Congressional District.

Cox, 31, made a splash when he entered the race. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger…

NRCC’s Independent Expenditure Is Armed With Shields

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 26, 2010 · 7:00 AM EDT

First in a series of profiles of committee independent expenditure directors.

Republican strategist Mike Shields survived back-to-back Democratic waves in 2006 and 2008 and lived to tell about it. This year, he’s on the front lines of the Republican effort to take back the House majority.


Pennsylvania 15: Callahan Running Against Rudy Giuliani?

by Stuart Rothenberg July 22, 2010 · 1:36 PM EDT

When I met Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan (D), I was impressed. Democratic insiders had told me he would be a good candidate, and they were right.

He’s articulate, personable, and able to talk about his accomplishments in a persuasive way. He’s also a proven vote getter and a…

We Don’t Need a DNC Lecture on Midterms

by Stuart Rothenberg July 21, 2010 · 9:44 AM EDT

The folks at the Democratic National Committee’s communications shop apparently believe that those of us — political analysts and handicappers, campaign professionals, journalists and political junkies — who have spent years following Congressional elections and dissecting polls are idiots.

And because we aren’t real sharp, we need the…

White House Lays Foundation for Post-Election Damage Control

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 20, 2010 · 11:34 AM EDT

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs created a firestorm by admitting that the House majority is in play, but House Democrats should be more worried about his subsequent analysis rather than his political prognostications.

“But I think there's no doubt there are enough seats in play that could…