Governor News & Analysis

How Can the GOP Turn Out Trump Voters?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 2, 2018 · 9:26 AM EDT

In my column last week, I noted that current public opinion data and recent election results point to a likely Democratic takeover of the House in the fall.

Some argue President Donald Trump’s unpopularity is already baked into the election cake, leaving Republicans little room to maneuver. But if…

Top of the Ticket Woes Could Lead to Downballot Debacle

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

It’s no secret that Republicans are headed for difficult midterm elections this fall, particularly in the House. It could be tough for GOP incumbents and candidates to generate enthusiasm among Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters when the President is not on the ballot. But the lack of competitive statewide races…

Illinois Primaries: Opportunities in the Land of Lincoln

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

Primaries can be a painful winnowing process for political parties, but they help set the stage for significant general election races in the fall. And unlike Texas, Illinois doesn’t have a runoff provision, so we know the general election match-ups in key contests that will help decide the House majority.  

Illinois Primaries: Ratings Changes in Two Races

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 21, 2018 · 9:30 AM EDT

The Illinois primaries are in the books, setting the stage for an important set of congressional elections in November. https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/illinois-general-election-match-ups-set-november ;

Assuming Democrat Conor Lamb is certified as the winner of the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, Democrats still need a net gain of 23 seats to win the…

The Stunning ‘Role of Government’ Numbers

by Stuart Rothenberg February 8, 2018 · 9:12 AM EST

While most people seem fascinated by shifts in presidential job approval and national ballot tests, I’ve always thought that the “role of government” question asked in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey doesn’t get the attention it deserves.

The responses to that question offer interesting insights into how voters see…

Good Candidate, Bad Candidate … Who Knows?

by Nathaniel Rakich November 27, 2017 · 11:35 AM EST

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is “probably the most confident, strongest Democrat to run for the U.S. Senate since I moved to Arizona in 1998,” trumpeted an Arizona State political science professor. Across the country, the party is “notably underwhelmed” by the three Democrats running against Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker. Republicans…

Members Face Tough Odds in Races for Governor

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 15, 2017 · 12:34 PM EST

There’s been plenty of media attention on the 15 members who have decided to call it quits and retire from the House, and another eight members are seeking a promotion to the Senate. But nine additional members are forgoing likely re-elections for uncertain and challenging races to become their…

Ten Thoughts after Democrats’ Big Wins in Virginia

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 8, 2017 · 12:51 PM EST

Everyone take a deep breath. We’re all starving for tangible election results and now we have them. But just as the previous Republican wins in congressional special elections didn’t guarantee the party would have a good 2018, losses on Tuesday night don’t necessarily tell us a Democratic wave in the…

2017-18 Gubernatorial Overview: Democrats Aim for Statewide Success

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 27, 2017 · 2:30 PM EDT

If you just can’t wait until the midterm elections, Virginia and New Jersey are poised to provide an appetizer ahead of next year’s main course.

Democrats are still searching for their first high-profile win while Donald Trump has been in the Oval Office. Virginia and New Jersey both give them…

2017-18 Gubernatorial Overview (Oct. 27, 2017) Alabama - Illinois

October 27, 2017 · 2:29 PM EDT

ALABAMA — Kay Ivey (R), assumed governorship April 2017. Feb. 9 filing deadline. June 5 primary. Ivey became governor from her lieutenant governor post after GOP Gov. Robert Bentley resigned under an ethical cloud involving an extramarital affair and improper use of state resources. Ivey, the first female governor of…