Ratings Change in Kentucky Senate

Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2014 · 2:50 PM EDT

One of the most watched Senate races of 2014 is over. Take it off your list of states that could fall either way on Tuesday.

Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell has opened up a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, secretary of state of the Bluegrass State, ensuring that McConnell will win a sixth term on Tuesday.

The only question now is whether McConnell will get a larger margin than he had six years ago, when he defeated Democrat Bruce Lunsford by six points.

Political observers have long portrayed the McConnell-Grimes race as a toss-up, but we have long believed that the race would eventually reflect the state’s fundamentals, which strongly favor the GOP nominee. In fact, we have never had the race more competitive than leaning toward McConnell.

Grimes’s prospects are now so poor that we are moving the race from Lean Republican to Republican Favored.