Ratings Change: Alaska Senate from Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2014 · 8:32 AM EDT

The Alaska Senate race remains quite close, with incumbent Democrat Mark Begich continuing to run a quality campaign. But the contest has started to better reflect the state’s partisan bent and its attitudes about the president, and Sullivan has moved to a small but significant advantage in the most recent surveys.

Begich continues to try to localize the contest in the hope that he can defeat challenger Dan Sullivan in spite of President Barack Obama’s poor standing in the state. But that is proving to be difficult, and the incumbent will need a huge turnout of Democrats (including those who usually don’t vote) and a large percentage of late deciders to fashion a come-from-behind victory.

We are moving this race from Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt Republican.