New Year, New House Ratings

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 3, 2024 · 4:39 PM EST

Sometimes overshadowed by the fights for the White House and Senate, the House majority is on the line in 2024 as well. With Republicans defending a narrow majority, changes in individual races can have a considerable impact on the fight for control. 

Looking at the races individually shows Republicans still have a narrow advantage to maintain their majority, but the presidential race hovers over the entire fight for the House. If the race for the White House is competitive, then the fight for the House should be a close, district-by-district battle. But if the presidential race turns into a lopsided affair, then the presidential winner will likely bring the House majority with them.

Democrats need a net gain of just five seats to reclaim the majority. That hurdle could lower to four seats if Democrats are able to win the Feb. 13 special election in New York’s 3rd District to replace expelled Republican George Santos. That race, which will pit Democratic former Rep. Tom Suozzi against Republican Nassau County legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, continues to be rated a Toss-up. 

But things have changed in a handful of other races, with some ratings shifting, along with some of the districts where incumbents are running. Here’s an update:

Alaska’s At-Large District. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom’s entrance into the race gives Republicans a candidate who can appeal to the various wings of the state party. But Alaska’s unique top-four ranked choice voting system might still be Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola’s saving grace, with Republican tech entrepreneur Nick Begich III remaining in the race. Peltola, who flipped the seat in a 2022 special election, starts the race with high favorables. But she will have to endure TV attacks from the GOP for the first time in her congressional career in a state former President Donald Trump is likely to win handily at the top of the ticket. Inside Elections changed the rating of the race from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic, in a shift toward Republicans.

Colorado’s 3rd District. In theory, GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert’s decision to seek reelection in the 4th District, which has an open seat following Rep. Ken Buck’s decision to retire, improves Republicans’ chances of keeping her current western Colorado district in the GOP column. But likely Democratic nominee Adam Frisch starts the new race with a considerable cash advantage ($4.3 million in the bank on Sept. 30) and it’s too early to know whether Republicans will nominate someone who can perform like a typical Republican. The race continues to be rated Tilt Republican. 

Georgia’s 6th District. Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath will run for reelection in this newly drawn seat, which was made more Democratic by the GOP state Legislature in a new map upheld by the courts. Inside Elections changed the rating from Solid Republican to Solid Democratic.
Georgia’s 7th District. GOP Rep. Rich McCormick is set to run for reelection in this newly drawn district during the same process, and the race is now rated Solid Republican instead of Solid Democratic.

Pennsylvania’s 10th District. GOP Rep. Scott Perry looks headed for a competitive general election with multiple credible Democrats in the race. Former longtime WGAL news anchor Janelle Stelson is regarded as the early frontrunner ahead of the April 23 Democratic primary, but former TOPGUN pilot Mike O’Brien and others are running as well. Perry is former chairman of the Freedom Caucus representing a Harrisburg/York centered-district that Trump only won with 51 percent in 2020 and has been shifting towards Democrats. This is more than a Democratic longshot. Inside Elections changed the rating from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.