New Print Edition: 2010 Senate Overview

July 25, 2009 · 9:00 AM EDT
The July 23, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers.

The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

Here is a brief preview of introduction to this edition:

Senate Overview – The Lay of the Land

Democrats still have more opportunities than does the GOP, but the public’s growing nervousness about the economy and the deficit could develop into a problem for Democratic candidates next year, particularly in open seats such as Missouri and Ohio. In addition, developments in Illinois and New Hampshire suddenly have improved Republican prospects in both states.

Four GOP seats currently look quite vulnerable, with Democratic recruiting in North Carolina still in progress. Republicans have two interesting targets in very blue states, in Connecticut and Illinois, and they hope to have strong challengers in Nevada and Delaware.

The economy and Congress’ dealings on health care, energy, the environment, the deficit and taxes are likely to move voters to one party or the other. At this point, the GOP brand is still damaged, but that shouldn’t make Democrats overly confident. Midterm elections tend to benefit the party out of power, and the Democrats’ 60-seat majority in the Senate could turn out to be an albatross in next year’s elections.

At this point, Republican open seats still give Democrats more to shoot at, and Democratic gains in the order of 2-4 seats certainly seem reasonable. But the tide may be shifting slightly away from the Democrats.

Subscribers to the print edition get race-by-race analysis as well as the latest polls.